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Friday May 13, 2005 - 01:16:15 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc

Price: 1.2164

Resistance: 1.2177 ... 1.2195 ... 1.2221 ... 1.2245
Support....: 1.2140 ... 1.2127 ... 1.2112 ... 1.2088

Bias: Slightly mixed but while 1.2112-30 supports we still look for a test of 1.2195 at least and possibly 1.2222-45

Bullish: Direct gains seen which has led to a slightly higher than expected intermediate high. This should cause a pullback in early trading and we see potential for the decline to reach 1.2112-30 but would see this as a good buying area with stops below 1.2100. A move above 1.2177 allows a move to 1.2195 at least but should allow for 1.2221-45. Thus only above 1.2250 would see price challenging the 1.2262 high with the next target at 1.2332.

Bearish: We feel we need hold off just for a while longer for a better selling opportunity. However, we feel that early trading could see a drift lower with 1.2177 likely to hold and cause a move down to 1.2127 at least and possibly 1.2112. However, only a breach of the 1.2100 area would see direct losses that would then see a move to 1.2040-65 at least and possibly the 1.2025 corrective low. Any test of 1.2195 would appear to be a good selling opportunity but stops need to be placed above 1.2250.



Elliott Wave Comments:

11th May 2005

We have been a little frustrated with the marginal breaks of support & resistance but continue to view the underlying direction as higher to the 1.2190-00 target. We note a 50% retracement of Wave iii is at 1.1986 while an alternative count would have support around 1.1965 (max 1.1935) and thus we look for resumption of the move higher soon.

12th May 2005

The recovery from our support yesterday is encouraging and does lend support for our view of a retest of the 1.2195 high. We should also be aware of resistance around 1.2241-48 (being a 14.6% expanded flat projection). However, once this high is seen we shall expect a return to the 1.1739 area once again.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.

 

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