Friday May 13, 2005 - 01:16:15 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc Price:
Resistance: 1.2177 ... 1.2195 ... 1.2221 ... 1.2245
Support....: 1.2140 ... 1.2127 ... 1.2112 ... 1.2088
Slightly mixed but while 1.2112-30 supports we still look for a test of 1.2195 at least and possibly 1.2222-45
Direct gains seen which has led to a slightly higher than expected intermediate high. This should cause a pullback in early trading and we see potential for the decline to reach 1.2112-30 but would see this as a good buying area with stops below 1.2100. A move above 1.2177 allows a move to 1.2195 at least but should allow for 1.2221-45. Thus only above 1.2250 would see price challenging the 1.2262 high with the next target at 1.2332.
We feel we need hold off just for a while longer for a better selling opportunity. However, we feel that early trading could see a drift lower with 1.2177 likely to hold and cause a move down to 1.2127 at least and possibly 1.2112. However, only a breach of the 1.2100 area would see direct losses that would then see a move to 1.2040-65 at least and possibly the 1.2025 corrective low. Any test of 1.2195 would appear to be a good selling opportunity but stops need to be placed above 1.2250.
Elliott Wave Comments:
11th May 2005
We have been a little frustrated with the marginal breaks of support & resistance but continue to view the underlying direction as higher to the 1.2190-00 target. We note a 50% retracement of Wave iii is at 1.1986 while an alternative count would have support around 1.1965 (max 1.1935) and thus we look for resumption of the move higher soon.
12th May 2005
The recovery from our support yesterday is encouraging and does lend support for our view of a retest of the 1.2195 high. We should also be aware of resistance around 1.2241-48 (being a 14.6% expanded flat projection). However, once this high is seen we shall expect a return to the 1.1739 area once again.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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