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Friday May 13, 2005 - 12:29:00 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 13-05-05 ....1112 GMT


Euro @ 1.2628/31....Targeting 1.23 over time
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.2666-85 / 1.2702-10 / 1.2736
S: 1.2597
The Euro has broken through some very critical Supports, which are now Resistances, as given above. 1.2597, which is the statistically projected Max Low for the day, provides the last Support for the day. Our target for the current downward break is 1.23 before any serious retracement can take place. The challenge is to run the Short EUR positions down to 1.23 at least.

Assuming that the 1.2597 Support holds for the day, it can provide a bounce back up to 1.2650-85 or maybe even up to 1.2710-40. How can we manage this bounce?

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 1.2647, SL 1.2740 (up from 1.2687), TP open

Orders:
Sell EUR 20K at 1.2710, SL 1.2784, TP open
Sell EUR 20K at 1.2758, SL 1.2788, TP open


$-Yen @ 107.17/21.....See 107.88 if 107.38 breaks
------------------------------------------------
R: 107.38 / 107.88 / 108.12-15
S: 106.98 / 106.74-66 / 106.33
The Dollar has risen above 107 and is likely to rise towards 107.88 and even 108.15. Statistically projected Max High for the day (107.38) provides immediate intra-day Resistance, which may/ may not hold and produce a dip towards 107.14-106.90

Order:
Buy $25K at 107.52, SL 107.23, TP 108.04


Euro-Yen @ 135.17/22.....Ranged? Or explosion imminent?
-----------------------------------------------------
R: 135.42-75 / 136.14-20 / 136.49-53
S: 135.17 / 134.99 / 134.70-65
Currently the Cross remains ranged between 135-136, or maybe narrower between 135.20-80. But this range has to break sometime and then some BIG movement is possible in Euro-Yen, on either side. The implication is that both Euro and Yen might not fall against the Dollar thereon. Which one will and which one won't is the 64 dollar question.




$-Swiss @ 1.2228/33....Further upside possible?
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2266
S: 1.2192-75 / 1.2159-51-48 / 1.2115
For the day, the Dollar has potential to rise further to 1.2266, the statistically projected Max High for the day. Going into next week, it has potential to rise further towards 1.2350-60. Any dip/ retracement from here may, hopefully, be limited to 1.2130-15.

Holding:
$25K Long at 1.2178, SL 1.2110, TP 1.2347




Cable @ 1.8572/7....Maybe a small bounce now?
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.8600-08 / 1.8631 / 1.8662
S: 1.8550 / 1.8537-25
We went Short at 1.8610 and saw profit at 1.8558. Thank you, Market. We see possibilities of a 100-120 pip bounce from the 1.8550-25 region.

Order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.8538, SL 1.8500, TP 1.8638




Happy Trading!

 

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