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Friday June 4, 2004 - 11:37:50 GMT
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Fx strategy session- NY open

Global forex trade has been pretty much on hold overnight as dealers awaited the outcome of the U.S. jobs report on the N.Y. open. Forecasts by economists seem to center somewhere around an increase of 225,000 in the month. The new derivatives contract on the Non-farm payrolls statistic implies traders are expecting an increase of 256,000. So the bias of the markets is for a better than forecast outcome. We have noted that short-term credit market prices have been generally soft in the past few days implying that the markets are leaning in the direction of a better than expected outcome for this report. This means that the surprise result would be a weaker than expected figure. The average result for the six months ending in April is about +160K.

Fed Funds futures indicate that traders were placing odds slightly on excess of 100% for a 25bp rate hike to be announced by the Fed on June 30. This outlook has been steady as a rock for the past month or so. The ongoing question remains what happens in the subsequent six months and into the election in early November. The data today could begin to fill in that picture.

Crude Oil prices remain extremely volatile and at the latest reading have fallen another $0.40 or so from their N.Y. close. The markets have yet to have fully digested the OPEC decision on Thursday. In particular one must wonder if 2.0mln barrels of additional crude will be flowing into global markets, or if the announced increase in quotas encompasses some of the preexisting overproduction. Odds are that a robust employment report from the U.S. could imply increased demand for energy and could support process. So the dollar could go either way on these data.

March German industrial Orders surged a seasonally-adjusted +2.5% in April due to strong foreign demand and some unanticipated domestic growth. Data recently have been pointing in the direction of an economic recovery in the Euro-area. April German industrial production figures are due next week.

Demand for the dollar was seen in Tokyo ahead of the U.S. employment report. Anticipation of a strong figure helped the Nikkei close up 101 points at 11,128, above the key psychological 11,000 line. Demand for the euro was noted as well as Japan moves into the season for summer bonuses for workers. There is said to be a significant amount of pent-up demand for euro-denominated investment trusts awaiting the disbursement of these annual bonuses by Japanese companies. These flows could weigh on the yen in the month of June. In China, the talk now is about growing inflationary pressures and a response by the Peoples Bank of China with the first interest rate hike since 1995 later in the summer. The yen is very sensitive to any perceptions that the Chinese economy might be slowing.

In his semiannual testimony to Parliament RBA Governor Macfarlane painted an upbeat picture of the economy even after 1Q04 had been a slower than expected +3.2% y/y. He dismissed the report saying that random factors had depressed the data and that growth is nor running closer to 4.0% than 3.0% and that the RBA expects 2004 growth of 3.75%. His testimony has rekindled speculation that additional rate hikes are still possible. Many had thought that Aussie rates were at cycle peaks.

In Canada, employment rose for the second consecutive month with a gain of 56,000 in May. These are very strong figures and will start to put the risk of a BOC rate hike in the frame.


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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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