Thursday May 19, 2005 - 00:49:18 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 19th May 2005 Price:
Resistance: 107.10 ... 107.35 ... 107.76 ... 108.04
Support....: 106.74 ... 106.46 ... 106.03 ... 105.71
While 107.10 caps the pressure is still lower towards 106.46 minimum & we suspect 105.70-00
No break of 107.76 but neither of 106.55. However, we do still look for losses to continue but require the corrective peak at 107.10 seen early this morning to cap. Thus a more bullish stance will require a move above 107.10 and then through 107.30-35 and back to the 107.76 area. This area could hold a third time but eventually (and this may be tomorrow) we will expect a break higher. Above 108.04 would encourage back to the 108.55-88 area.
The 107.76 high remained intact and we have seen losses from there. While 107.10 caps we feel that a further dip to 106.46 is then likely and while that should cause a further correction we would eventually look for the decline to reach the 105.71-97 area. Further support is then found at 105.54.
Elliott Wave Comments:
16th May 2005
We are now within the target area mentioned above and thus there is a risk of a pullback. If seen from the 107.77 level this could imply a retracement to the 105.80-00 area but we are reluctant to get much more bearish than this with weekly & daily cycles both pointing strongly higher. Any break through 107.77 would imply potential to 108.40 where Wave (c) is equal to 138.2% of Wave (a) and at an extreme to 109.58 which represents a 261.8% projection.
18th May 2005
We now count the expected 107.76 high as Wave (c) of Wave -i- higher and thus a correction in Wave -ii- is expected with a 50% pullback at 105.97 and 61.8% at 105.54. The only risk to this is a direct resumption of the uptrend which would then target 109.58.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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