Thursday May 19, 2005 - 09:48:37 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 05-19-05
Euro Teeters off Tame CPI
UK Retail sales jumped by 0.5% much better than the 0.0% expected, bringing smiles to beaten pound bulls for the first time in days. Although April’s data was certainly a positive surprise, the month’s prior numbers were revised downward from –0.1% to –0.3% and the best that cable longs can hope for is for BOE to stay pat rather actually lower interest rates. Any notion of possible BOE rate hikes are still out of the question.
In Europe, the March PPI report reached its highest level in 4 years, but the spike was due to one-off factors of rising oil and energy prices. With consumer demand depressed by the steepest unemployment rate since WWII, European businesses have absolutely no pricing power and inflation at the consumer level remained muted.
There is little market moving data scheduled for the day, but the US LEI report and the Philly Fed numbers could catch dealer’s attention especially if they report lower than expected indicating a divergence between the rosy growth scenario of dollar bulls and the potential slowdown suggested by the latest data.
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR retraces to 2650 off profit taking on CPI
- JPY stationary at 107.15
- GBP gets a bounce to 8400 from Retail data
- CHF bellows 2200 in quiet trade
- 12:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 14) Expected 330K Previous 340K
- 14:00 GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Leading Indicators (APR) Expected -0.2% Previous -0.4%
- 16:00 GMT – (12:00 PM EST) USD Philly Fed (May) Expected –17.2 Previous 25.3
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