Thursday May 19, 2005 - 14:46:33 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI BIWEEKLY FOREX SURVEY RESULTS
In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar improved against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2631 from 1.2870 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (May 17 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2605
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) remained neutral the EURUSD after the recent changes in the spot rate at 53 from 52 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast improved to 106.67 from 104.88 two weeks earlier. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 107.50. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned neutral the dollar from two weeks earlier. It was 47 from 44.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to fall to a mean $46.85 in three months from the current spot vs. the previous $48.62 estimate.
In a special question, 41% (39%, 46%) of respondents said the USD/JPY would trade at 110 before 100. 34% (48%, 38%) saw 100 first, and 25% (13%, 16%) saw neither in 2005. Figures in parentheses were the responses to the same question posed on March 22 and February 23 of this year.
For complete survey results see:
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