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Monday May 23, 2005 - 12:38:53 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx Thoughts Evening 23/05/05 1151 GMT

Euro @ 1.2553/6.....Holding Short
------------------------------------
The Euro tested the Friday low of 1.2536 and seems to have found support there. As of now it continues to remain below 1.2576 and 1.2600. If the resistances continues to hold there could be a test of 1.2536 again and if it breaks we might see it fall to 1.2460 and below. Also note that the chances of a bear corrective rally to 1.2612 and later to 1.2655 seems equally likely in the next couple of days. If so, the pair might still be vulnerable to selling pressure.

Holding:
Euro Short 20K at 1.2558, SL 1.2594 (down from 1.2634) , TP open.


$-Yen @ 107.85/9.....Crucial Support at 107.70
------------------------------------------------
R: 108.09 / 108.46 / 108.80
S: 107.70-61 / 107.49-38 / 106.94-72
The support at 107.70 may hold the pair up today and provide an opportunity for triggering longs. However the resistance at 108.32 seems to be a tough level to breach today itself. In case of a break below 107.70, we may see an eventual fall to 106.40.

Waiting to see whether the 107.70 Support holds through the US session today. If it does, we’ll look to buy tomorrow, hopefully for 109.60. If it breaks, then we may look to sell, for 106.40


$-Swiss @ 1.2316/21.....Buying on dip
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2353-63 / 1.2386-1.2405 / 1.2430
S: 1.2299-88 / 1.2260 / 1.2238-36
The Monthly chart suggests a target near 1.28-1.30. The Daily chart shows uptrend channel Resistance near 1.2353-63. Allow for a false spike up towards 1.2406. If these Resistances hold, the Dollar could see a profit-taking fall down towards 1.2150 over the course of the week.

The market could then get trapped in a rising wedge (on the Daily candles) between 1.2405-1.2150-2400 for the next several days till the current overbought conditions ease down a bit.

For today, the Support to watch on the downside is 1.2280. While it holds, the market could be ranged between 1.2280-1.2365

Order:
Buy $25K at 1.2292, SL 1.2267, TP 1.2330


Cable @ 1.8293/98....Looking to sell, last try
-----------------------------------------------
R: 1.8304 / 1.8336 / 1.8386
S: 1.8268 / 1.8234 / 1.8175
Last year's bullish potential for 2.00 seems to have been negated and the focus has shifted downwards to 1.7950 and 1.7750. That said, the Cable has fallen substantially in the last four weeks, and the fall may slow down in the immediate time frame. A uptrend line joining the May-04 low (1.7480) with the Oct-04 low (1.7745) provides Support near 1.8140 this week and could be ideal for short-covering which could take the Cable up towards 1.83/1.84.

For today, the Resistances to look at are 1.8309-14 and 1.8340 and the Support to watch is 1.8233. In case the 1.8340 Resistance is broken, the Cable may rise further towards 1.8375-95. While it holds, there may be case for a fall towards 1.81

Order:
Sell GBP 15K at 1.8325, SL 1.8385, TP 1.8135

Happy Trading!

 

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