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Tuesday May 24, 2005 - 11:15:03 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Dollar weaker on revaluation news...again!

Quotable

“Let us get the picture clearly in our mind. The ticker tape is simply a record of human nature passing in review.”

Humphrey B. Neill, Tape Readings & Market Tactics

FX Trading

The US administration has turned to its cadre of elites who span the cold war and hot ones to “urge” China to revalue its currency by at least 10%, according to a story appearing in the Financial Times today. Mr. Henry Kissinger and General Brent Scowcroft are on the scene. As an aside, I’m sure Mr Kissinger and General Scowcroft will be quite pleased with a 10%+ revaluation, given the amount of dollars Kissinger & Associates and the Carlyle Group, most likely have invested in strategic—read politically well connected—places throughout China. Same old players—same old game! No matter that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said not even a 20% revaluation would do anything to improve the US trade deficit with China.

The dollar is modestly lower this morning and looks a bit “overbought” near-term. With China revaluation on the front-burner again, who knows!

Despite the vast vested interests urging China to revalue immediately, we are still in the camp that says any revaluation will be later rather than sooner. Our view has been that China has bigger fish to fry, in the form of a financial bubble as exemplified by speculation in Shanghai real estate. And even super-China-bull, Morgan’s Stephen Roach, is sounding very concerned on that score lately. From his piece yesterday, “What if China Slows?”…

“For the past eight years, it has been wrong to bet on the downside of the Chinese growth trajectory. That was the case during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, the synchronous global recession of 2001, and the SARS epidemic of 2003. Time and again, China’s resilience has confounded the naysayers. Yet China faces new and more difficult challenges today. The property bubble is an increasingly worrisome source of internal instability. And the currency-export nexus has become an increasingly intractable source of external instability. China faces growing pressures to relieve tensions on both fronts. This time, it will be much tougher for China to avoid a meaningful slowdown. It’s time for the rest of the world to prepare for just such a possibility.”

Will politics trump economics when it comes to the Chinese revaluation? That’s the bet!

At least one thing does seem clear, and it ain’t pretty—European economics continue to lurch from bad to worse. And on that prospect, euro bund prices are in nose bleed territory, heading higher, and pulling away from US 10-year bonds, despite a strong rally on this side of the pound. If yield differential is the driver of currencies we believe it is, long- and intermediate-term players may want to look at any rally in the euro here as a gift to add to short positions…

CHART: 10yr vs $ vs bunds



Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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