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Wednesday June 1, 2005 - 11:13:13 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD still attempting to find a short-term base. The prospect of a Dutch ‘No’ is deterring buyers.

• Buba EMU story and more weak data hurt the EUR this morning.

• Australian GDP disappointing.

• US ISM features today.

Market Outlook

Further weakness in EUR-USD this morning following more bad news flow. PMI data was weaker than expected, with the headline number dipping even further below the key 50 level, while there were also claims of a rumoured discussion involving Buba chief Weber and finance minister Eichel about the prospect of EMU failing. This was the claim of an article in Stern magazine, which apparently cited a source at the meeting. However, a source quoted on Reuters (it is not clear if it is the same source) said that neither Weber nor Eichel had raised the topic for discussion and did not comment when others at the meeting (private sector economists) discussed the issue. The Bundesbank also issued a statement confirming that they regularly meet with economists but that Weber ‘rules out a failure of EMU’ and that he ‘will not participate in such an absurd discussion’. They also said that both Weber and Eichel saw the EUR as a ‘success story’. It would appear that Eichel and Weber inadvertently found themselves caught up in a debate with some economists and many perhaps will pity them for that!

None of this has helped the EUR in the current fragile environment and the prospect of a Dutch ‘No’ vote today is also discouraging buyers. From a short-term strategic point of view short positions are likely to be favoured in the market while EUR-USD stays below 1.2450-1.2500. There is a possibility of more downside today (next support is at 1.2210) given the likelihood of a Dutch ‘No’, although a rally back up to retest 1.2450-1.2500 could easily be seen subsequently given the scale of the recent move. USD buyers may also eventually turn cautious ahead of Friday’s employment report and the degree of caution will be influenced by today’s ISM outcome.

UK data was mixed this morning, with mortgage approvals rising a little but consumer credit and manufacturing PMI both coming out weaker than expected. Overall, the data helped money rate expectations soften a touch, but there are bigger driving factors in the FX market at the present time.

Australian Q1 GDP was weaker than expected, although Q4 was revised up to +0.3% from +0.1%. The breakdown was not that impressive, with inventories contributing 1.2% to the +0.7% outcome. This raises downside risk for Q2 if final demand is not strong enough to clear this inventory rise. Together with yesterday’s retail sales the market has little to build rate hike expectations on for now. The AUD will remain exposed to further weakness short-term if the USD can maintain its recent strength. There is more downside risk while below the old support at 0.7505-15.

Day Ahead
US – the ISM for manufacturing has been drifting lower in recent months and it is important that it remains comfortably above the key 50 level. Recent weak NY and Philly Fed surveys suggest a softer number than the 53.3 seen last month.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

NL Dutch referendum
US Chain store sls (w/e May 28) w/w 07.45 -0.2% last
US Redbook sls (w/e May 28) m/m 08.55 +2.6% last
CH PMI manu (May) 09.00 51.9
US ISM manu (May) 10.00 52.1

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e May 29) -13 -15 last
AU GDP (Q1) q/q +0.7% +0.9%
DE Retail sales (Apr) y/y -3.0% -0.3%
SE PMI manu (May) 52.3 52.3
IT PMI manu (May) 47.1 47.7
FR PMI manu (May) 48.8 49.7
DE PMI manu (May) 49.4 49.4
EU PMI manu (May) 48.7 49.0
GB Mortgage approvals (Apr, sa) 95k 92kR last
GB Net consumer lending (Apr) £1.3bn £1.6bn
GB PMI manu (May) 47.3 49.8
EU GDP (Q1, 2nd est) q/q +0.5% +0.5%
EU Unemployment rate (Apr) 8.9% 8.9%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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