Wednesday June 1, 2005 - 22:46:52 GMT
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Aspen Trading Group - www.aspentrading.com
PM FX Update/Outlook
The re-open of the dollar index (DXC), up 20 cents has barely had an impact on the pairs we follow, AUD, GBP, NZD and NOK. While it is difficult to draw conclusions , it may be worth noting that "oversold" conditions (overbought in DXC) might be having an impact.
Bullish stochastic divergence on intra-day time frames suggests that lower levels, while possible, might be hard to come by. Nonetheless, a rally into .7510-30 area that meets with resistance might offer another short opportunity, we will simply need to watch and wait to see how the price action unfolds.
NZD/USD is also showing some modest signs of sideways to higher price action, but we would expect to see .7000-25 to act as solid resistance. Nonetheless, with signs that a bounce is at hand, we will be cautious to re-establish shorts until prices unfold further.
USD/NOK - Trade Idea:
USD/NOK appears to have finally run out of steam as a Wave 5 completion on the intra-day models suggests sideways to lower action going forward. A break of 6.4560 could expose 6.4320 and 6.4180.
We would consider this a reasonable short entry if the dollar index (DXC) were to break-down in conjunction.
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