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Thursday June 2, 2005 - 10:55:30 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 06-02-05

Euro Squeezes the Shorts

Although, the Dutch overwhelmingly voted No on the EU referendum, rejecting the pact by 62% to 38%, the euro staged a furious short covering rally rising for the first time in a week, almost reaching the 1.2300 figure in early European trade. As we noted yesterday, with the everyone in the market leaning to the sell side, the price action over the past few days was reminiscent of a capitulation bottom as the last of the long term euro bulls bailed out of their positions after the currency broke key support at 1.2500 figure earlier this week.

While the resounding defeat of the EU Constitution clearly put a halt to further European political integration, the region’s economic reforms may continue to progress unabated. French media is suggesting that Tony Blair, who takes over the EU presidency this month, may seize the opportunity presented by the disarray in political arena to push ahead with ’liberal’ economic reforms, leaving the institutional infrastructure to languish. If this scenario plays out as planned, it may in fact be a blessing in disguise as it enacts much needed economic changes in the Euro-zone without creating a massive bureaucratic stronghold in Brussels.

As Europe comes to grip with its political crisis the market’s attention may turn back to US economic data. Yesterdays comments by Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher that the Fed was in the “eighth inning” of its rate hike cycle almost flew under the radar as the market only focused on EU developments. But should Mr. Fisher’s comments prove to be accurate, dollar’s rapid climb may come to a grinding halt. Our proprietary studies show that over the past 15 years, transitions from restrictive to neutral monetary policies by the Fed led to a decline in the currency as markets quickly discounted regime changes.

FX Spot Overnight


- EUR drops to 2250 as bad eco data and rumors batter the currency
- JPY at 108.50 remains stronger on a relative basis
- GBP dips to 8140 on much worse than expected PMI data
- CHF at 2570 following euro’s collapse

Upcoming Events

- 11:45 GMT – (07:45 AM EST) EUR ECB Announces Interest Rates (JUN) Expected 2.0% Previous2.0%
- 12:30 GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Non-farm Productivity (1Q F) Expected 3.00% Previous 2.60%
- 12:30 GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q F) Expected 1.90% Previous2.20%
- 12:30 GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 28) Expected 325K Previous323K
- 14:00 GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Factory Orders (APR) Expected 1.00% Previous0.1%
- 14:00 GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Factory Inventories (APR) Expected 0.4% Previous0.5%

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

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