User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday June 2, 2005 - 15:19:40 GMT
Global-View -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: GVI Professsional Dealer Survey Results and Analysis

In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar improved against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2112 from 1.2631 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (May 31 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2305.

The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) turned bearish the EURUSD after the recent changes in the spot rate at 32 from 53 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USDJPY mean dollar forecast improved to 107.86 from 106.87 two weeks earlier. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 108.45. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index became less neutral the dollar from two weeks earlier. It was 40 after 47.

Traders expect the price of crude oil to fall to a mean $50.94 in three months from the current spot vs. the previous $46.85 estimate.

In a special tracking question, participants were asked again where they expect the ECB refi rate (currently 2.0%) will close 2005. This question was also asked on February 9 and May 4. The results for the three polls starting with February 9 were as follows:
Above 2.0%: 53%, 31%, 20%
Unch (2.0%): 32%, 49%, 44%
Below 2.0%: 15%, 20%, 34%

For complete survey results see:

Analysis courtesy Cumino:

GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).

EUR USD 3 months: (First day close 1.2305, av. responses 1.2112, Adjusted boundaries 1.19-1.27).

GVI:32% (53%) [3mSMA44%]. COMPONENTS: 53% 29% 18% (22% 50% 28%) [3mSMA33%45%22%]. Very bearish in absolute and relative terms. Among components the bearish camp increased 31%. Neutrals diminished @20%, bullish diminished @10%. Anyway being the 3m moving average of bullish 22% (26% is the average of the whole period, while minimum was 13%). The reading is not yet extreme from that point of view. Anyhow the large portion that sees EUR under the prevailing range of last year suggests some caution.

Neutrals are low, which suggests a perceived change in future volatility.
In the meantime, updated data about margin specs positions (i.e. hedge funds, CTA clients of a number of banks/brokers) show that they aren’t now as short as are those in the last COT report where the net shorts (non commercials + non reportable) already exceeded the 2STDDEV boundary under the 52 week moving average.
IMO margin data and option market coupled with tech. studies tends to suggest that at least since half May were also active long termers (CBs etc….).

Finally last exporters/importers surveys showed a still relative high EUR sentiment, albeit diminishing, but those were issued before the “French referendum” and the subsequent sell-off.
Regard to the option market since last survey RR 1m moved from –0.3 to –0.4, a level seen more than one year ago. Implied went higher and the implied-actual spread, which was near zero during last survey, surged to @1.06.

USD JPY 3 months: (First day close 108.45, avg. responses 107.86. Adjusted boundaries 104.-112)

GVI:47%(38%) [3mSMA42%]. COMPONENTS:13% 80% 7%(36% 54% 10%) [3mSMA25% 67% 8%]. USD neutral in absolute terms. Among components @23% passed from bearish USD to neutral, reversing the previous move. The 80% neutrals is the highest reading ever seen. Judging by the numbers the CNY rumors cost some people money.

Comparing positions, while COT data show JPY net specs positions very short, the margin specs reading is more similar to the GVI Survey, and personally I would stay on that view.
Since last Survey RR 1m moved from –0.75 (USD calls over puts) to –0.55. Volatilities in the meantime slightly diminished. (FWIW there is a decent correlation between 12m USD JPY implied and UST10y yields).

OIL 3 months: (1st day close 51.97, av. responses 50.94, Adjusted boundaries 45-59)
46%(38%) [3mSMA44%] COMPONENTS:14%81%5%(32%59%9%) [3mSMA22%69%9%]. Slightly bearish in absolute terms. Among components 18% bearish and 4% bullish passed to the neutral camp. The result could also be read in the sense that oil is not perceived as an actual theme.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105