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Friday June 3, 2005 - 11:30:58 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Single currency could become many

Quotable

“It was déjà vu all over again”

Yogi Berra

FX Trading

Well, it would give us a lot more things to trade. That is if the euro was jettisoned for local currency again. D-mark, French franc, Spanish peseta, Italian lira…

“The drift towards liberal unity will also be challenged by pressure from the single currency itself, under which one monetary policy is supposed to fit all currency members (twelve, as of 2002), and even national fiscal policies are subject to collectively imposed constraints. The currency is a unifying force, of course, for it will induce more companies to think of Western Europe as a more or less single market, will encourage consumers to do more shopping (or, at least, comparison shopping) across borders, and will make harder for governments to maintain national tax and regulatory policies that make their countries’ prices higher for easily tradable goods. Politically, though, this unity also has the potential of bringing explosive disunity. During deep recessions, the single, one-size-fits-all monetary policy could pit national politicians against the European Central Bank as a feeling grows of national impotence in the face of rising unemployment. It is not at all improbable that one or more member countries might withdraw from the euro and reintroduce their national currencies at some stage during the currency’s first decade.

“There could be a moment, in other words, in the depths of a recession, in which one government is under pressure to take action against unemployment at home, but meanwhile the European Central Bank refuses to cut interest rates or other countries refuse to allow that government to expand its fiscal spending. Opposition parties would have a field day, stirring up anti-European emotions. The result would be a country’s withdrawal from the euro and its reintroduction of a national currency. It would be a drastic step, taken only in extremis. But it is not at all inconceivable.”

Bill Emmott, 20:21 Vision, written in 2003

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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