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Tuesday June 7, 2005 - 11:26:02 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 06-07-05

Euro Holds the Bounce

Because of a very light economic calendar trading tonight is dominated by official commentary which is providing a mild bid tone to the EUR/USD. Overnight, Chairman Greenspan failed to inspire the markets with cautious wording that clearly reflected his concern over the latest weak NFP numbers as well as frustration with the continuous flattening of the yield curve in the bond market. A flat yield curve occurs when the longer dated fixed income securities trade at a very narrow spread to the shorter term instruments and indicates that the market is anticipating a slowdown or even a recession. Mr. Greenspan’s comments last night offered no strong arguments to combat that opinion, so the FX market seized on the idea that Fed rate hikes may top out at 3.5% in a few months time which would be dollar bearish because it would cap the carry trade advantage the greenback now enjoys against the yen and the euro.

On the euro side, comments by Michael Deppler Director, of the European Department of International Monetary Fund that the ECB may not need to lower rates just yet, helped convince the market that the euro yields will not fall in the near future. Mr. Deppler noted that that if growth does not pick up by Q3 then a cut would be valid. “It is appropriate for Eurozone rates to stay on hold as the slowdown seems temporary”, he said. According to analysts at IFR this idea appeared to have been the best compromise yet between those looking for rates to be held and those who urge the ECB act quickly and helped to buoy the euro in morning trade. Incidentally, Mr. Deppler also stated that 1.20-1.30 range was just about right for the pair, a view with which we concur as we believe the EUR/USD will now enter a protracted period of consolidation and range trading because neither currency offers strong value.

Meanwhile both yen and pound have also rallied against the greenback despite less then stellar eco data overnight. In Japan, Household Spending declined to –3.0% on year over year basis – more than the –2.0% projected drop. Japan remains gripped in the hands of deflation and progress is small and slow. In UK the worst decline in housing prices in 7 months did not prevent sterling from reaching the 1.8300 figure only 2 days after it nearly broke through the 1.8100 level. The dollar is overbought and it look like the market will be a lot more forgiving towards the majors this week than the greenback.

FX Spot Overnight


- EUR takes and holds the 2300 figure
- JPY at 106.50 despite soft Household Spending
- GBP at 8300 although housing data slows
- CHF targets the 2400 figure

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Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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