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Tuesday June 7, 2005 - 13:30:22 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD-JPY weakens further – more losses due if 106.50 breaks.

• Greenspan expresses puzzlement over low yields.

• GBP shrugs off weak data, German manufacturing data better.

• Norwegian GDP, manu output strong.

• Australian housing finance and RBA due tonight. AUD improves further.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD continues to fight back after recent losses but progress is slow, suggesting that the move is a reluctant one. This is in contrast to the USD weakness seen against other currencies like the JPY and the AUD (see below for AUD). Yesterday’s move below 107.20-30 on USD-JPY opened the way to 106.50, which has been tested already this morning and 105.95 (61.8% Fib retrace from prior upmove) after that. Indeed, there is an outside chance of a more substantial move closer to 105.00 if the large amount of spec USD-JPY longs according to the IMM are any guide to potential liquidation risk.

The tentative approach to EUR-USD will likely continue in the very short-term as long as 1.2340-45 caps activity. This area marks the high from June 1 as well as the high post-payrolls and probably needs to break today if a renewed push lower is to be avoided. Above that area would suggest something of a short-term bottom on the chart, suggesting a retest of prior support at 1.2450-1.2500. However, medium term prospects for EUR-USD will remain down as long as 1.2690 (previous high) and a line currently at 1.2735 hold. Below 1.2235-40 would suggest more trouble short-term.

Comments from Greenspan aided lower rate sentiment, but he didn’t really express anything new. He was merely trying to rationalise why yields were currently so low and acknowledged that expectations of a weakening economy could be one factor. However, he also noted that yields had remained depressed even when there were occasions of economic strength.

GBP proved>Norwegian GDP and manufacturing output releases were both stronger than expected, bolstering expectations of rate hikes at the next Norges Bank meeting on June 30 as well as for H2 2005. Friday’s CPI data could influence the debate further. The Norges Bank has already strongly signalled that such a move will be pursued at that meeting. However, they have been more equivocal about what will happen after that, tentatively suggesting so far that ‘small infrequent changes’ may be the way forward in restoring interest rates to more normal levels. The NOK has remained strong against the EUR over the past couple of weeks, following the EUR-NOK break below support at 8.02-8.06. Given the divergence in rate fundamentals between the NOK and the EUR (not to mention the political problems in the EU), it is difficult to argue against this dynamic at the present time. However, some decent support should be forthcoming around 7.72-7.80, not last because an excessive NOK appreciation will start to undermine rate hike expectations.
EUR-NOK weakened further after today’s data, but it has thus far failed to take out yesterday’s low at 7.86. Below there would see further short-term losses, while above 7.8850 would suggest some modest stabilisation.

Day Ahead
Australia – the RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged tonight and when this is the case no statement is offered. Housing finance will be more interesting - to see whether the market has come through unscathed in response to the March rate hike. The sharp fall in consumer sentiment after that move raised fears about a negative housing market response, although the March housing finance data was resilient. The April data released tonight will complete the picture. The AUD has continued to strengthen overnight and the move above resistance at 0.7647 holds out the prospect of more gains in the short-term. A potential trendline at 0.7740 is the next big level.
996 06.30 EDT Thursday May 26 2005

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Jun 4) w/w 07.45 -1.0 last
US Redbook sls (w/e Jun 4) m/m 08.55 +2.5% last
EU ECB’s Weber speaks on policy 12.30
US Fed’s Fisher participates in conference 13.00
US Consumer credit (Apr) 15.00 $7.0bn
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 5) 17.00 -15 last
AU RBA rate announcement 19.30 5.5%
JP M2 plus CDs (May) y/y 19.50 +1.9%
AU Housing finance (Apr) m/m 21.30 +2.3%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB BRC retail survey (May) y/y -2.4% -4.7% last
JP Overall PCE (Apr) y/y -3.0% -2.0%
GB HBOS house prices (May) m/m -0.6% 0.0% last
NO GDP – total (Q1) q/q +0.5% +0.3%
NO GDP – mainland (Q1) q/q +0.9% +0.6%
NO Manu output (Apr) m/m +2.2% +0.5%
DE Ind prod (Apr) m/m +1.1% +0.5%
DE Manu output (Apr) m/m +0.6% +0.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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