Wednesday sees the most watched housing number of the month, Existing Homes Sales. This might be an interesting release as the data are being revised back for 5 years. Expectations are the data will be revised down substantially. The data are produced by NAR (National Association of Realtors) who has been under major recently attack for "cooking" the data to make conditions not look as bad as they have been.
The German IFO survey released Tuesday appeared to be showing that the German economy is not as weak as thought. Note the EURUSD rallied ahead of the data suggesting that some might have had an idea about the report beforehand.
Pre-holiday trade this week has been sluggish. However, we suspect activity might pick up in the mid-week period as traders clean up their books before the yearend break at the close of next week
S&P and Moodys downgrades of France (and others?) are still awaited, after the EU Leaders did little to address the existing sovereign debt exposures. The EFSF will be rated at the credit rating of its lowest participant.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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