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Tuesday June 8, 2004 - 09:27:53 GMT -

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Euro flirts with twice over Fib level

Daily Forex Technical Report 6-8-2004

Euro flirts with twice over Fib level
A pivotal moment for the Yen

The jury has yet to finalize deliberation insofar as the near-term fate of the EUR/USD. The pair continues to meander just below the key fib retracement level of 1.2340/45 late in Asia trading leaving technicians befuddled. The 1.2440/45 level represents a significant plane on multiple Fibonacci horizons. One being the 1.1380 - 1.2930 registering a 38.2 retracement and of course the 50% of 1.2935-1.1755 as noted in previous publications. Under a microscope of fifteen-minute intervals, oscillators have washed into overbought as price charges into local resistance (1.2335/40) and macroscopic oscillators conquer. USD/JPY made a high of 109.28 on 04/15 before retracing to the 107.50 low on 04/16 (178pts lower). On 04/22 the high was at 109.93 (slightly below our 110.00/50 area) and the pair moved back to the 109.35 low on 04/26, 58pts lower. For the uptrend to remain in tact we will have to see a failure to breakdown the 50% retracement (109.20). If the level fails a double bottom will appear giving many bulls reason to get involved and many present bears reason to exit the market aiding an upward shift in consensus. Consolidation wanes for the GBP/USD, however, price action reveals a mild bid tone was at hand during the most recent phase. Much like other dollar pairs sterling trades near resistance (1.8450). The 61.8% retracement of 1.9135 (11 year high against the dollar) - 1.7475 comes into play at 1.8500, contributing to the resistance eyed above. Daily pivot R2 also come into the resistance scenario registering just above 1.8535. The standard set of moving averages seems to be a great distance away with the closest (100 WMA) over 250 pips from present trading and the next closest over 400 pips away. Weekly pivot S1 (1.2325) holds up for now on a brief test as USD/CHF slips a bit lower with its regression channel. Daily pivot S2 (1.2315) sits just below and will likely serve as a tipping point for retracement traders favoring the long side. We see any such retracements loosing steam near local daily resistance and 61.8% retracement of 1.3235-1.2145 (1.2560). 1.2260 could provide moderate support in the event of a breakdown through present support levels noted above due to the daily close/open February 17/18 second leg of double bottom.


The situation is still slightly bullish but the cross is stuck between solid Fib zones. As a result bulls and bears will have good opportunities. Bulls will step in at 2670/2700 in order to exploit the 200 SMA and Low BB. A sustained move below would then open the door to the wide 2.2200/2.2350 area where the 23.6% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave is present. Above, aggressive bears will have a clear shot at 3070/3800 thanks to both the 20EMA and 100 SMA. 3350/3400 will attract more conservative reversal players (61.8% Fibo from the Aug01 - 03 bear wave) while 3800/3880 is to keep in mind for the bearish crowd thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Nov 00 - 03 bear wave.


After dropping to a low of 2.2495 on 5/14, GBPCHF rallied to a high of 2.3134 on 5/27, slightly above our 3070 target, giving aggressive bears a fresh opportunity to initiate shorts. After a brief period of consolidation, the outlook for GBPCHF has turned bearish once again, as the pair breaks below 2.2790/2840, the 50% fibo of the Oct-Mar bull wave / 38.2% retracement of the May - Mar bull wave and 23.6% fibo of the April - May bear wave. Bulls will find 2.2525/2.2600, the May 18 low / 61.8% retracement of the Oct-Mar rally / 6-month trendline support an attractive entry point. A sustained move below that level would then open the door to the wide 2.2200/2.2350 area where the 23.6% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave is present. Above, aggressive bears will once again look to short towards 2.3000/3075, thanks to the 50-day EMA / 38.2% fibo of the Oct-Mar bull wave / 38.2% fibo of the Mar-May bear wave and the June 1, 3 and 4 highs. 3350/3400 will attract more conservative reversal players (61.8% Fibo from the Aug01 - 03 bear wave) while 3800/3880 is to keep in mind for the bearish crowd thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Nov 00 - 03 bear wave.


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