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Friday December 30, 2011 - 05:43:01 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.tradethenews.com/freetrial.asp?gv

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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Thin mixed trade reigns in the last day of

- (CN) CHINA DEC FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.7 V 47.7 PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 4.2% V 4.0%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.5% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.6%E
- (SG) SINGAPORE NOV BANK LOANS & ADVANCES Y/Y: 30.5% V 29.8% PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS (S$): 3.2B V 3.0B PRIOR; BAD DEBTS (S$): 13.2B V 15.0M PRIOR
- (SG) SINGAPORE NOV MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 10.1% V 10.3% PRIOR; M1 Y/Y: 16.8% V 19.2% PRIOR
- (RU) RUSSIA DEC SERVICES PMI: 53.8 V 54.9 PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN DEC MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.2 V 49.1 PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV RP DATA-RISMARK HOUSE PX RAW: 0.1% V -0.2% PRIOR (1st increase since DEC 2010)

***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.4%
- S&P/ASX -0.4%
- Kospi closed
- Taiwan Taiex -0.1%
- Singapore Straits Times -0.3%
- Shanghai Composite +0.8%
- Hang Seng +0.4%
- S&P Futures -0.2% at 1,254
- Feb Gold +1.0% at $1,555/oz
- March Crude +0.2% at $99.88

***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Asian markets were mixed to the upside today, trading was thin in the last day of trading in 2011, ASX closed early, -15% y/y for 2011 and the Kospi was closed. The Taiex ended the year -21% y/y. After Italy's mixed auction yesterday the euro tested a 15-month low before coming back, but stayed in a 30 pip range in the session. A$ and NZ$ both gained 0.2%. USD/JPY was in a 20 pip range dipping to ¥77.51. Corn and wheat both fell which copper and silver rose in the session.

- The key piece of economic data was the final December reading of China HSBC Manufacturing PMI which came in at 48.7, up from 47.7 in Nov and down from the flash reading of 49.0. New orders also rose, new export orders and employment index fell below 50. The markets had little reaction to the data. The PBoC set the yuan mid point at 6.3009 v 6.3192 prior close, this is a new yuan high since the July 2005 revaluation, the yuan also went on to test the top of the daily trading band. This is the 3rd high set this week after a long period of weaker settings. There is still talk that the RRR could be cut after the new year.

- North Korea's KCNA said that North Korea will never communicate with South Korea President Lee's government and there should be no expectations of change in policies. This is most likely in response to a press report citing North Korean defector a lieutenant of the late Kim Jong-il Choi Se-woong, saying that Kim Jong-un will open North Korea to a more market style export economy.

***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) Shenyin & Wanguo Securities: China inflation may rebound in Dec and Industrial Production to slow
- (JP) Japan banks looking at European bank assets as part of expansion; The EU crisis and stronger yen are providing prime investment opportunities - FT
- (CN) According to Soufun land sales in Shanghai fell for the first time in 3-years in 2011 - Chinese press

***Equities***
- Baoshan Iron & Steel, 600019.CH: Chairman: Expecxts lower margins for China steel for the next 2-3 years
- WES.AU: Completes sale of premier coal business, expects pretax profit of A$90M
- Greentown China, 3900.HK: CFO Fung: Deal with Soho does not breach deal with Fosun (Fosun claims it has pre-emptive right in land transfer)

***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (US) NY Fed reports forex swaps of $33B with the ECB; $9.04B with the Bank of Japan; Swiss National Bank $320M in latest week

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Fri 28 Apr
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of M Survey

Mon 1 May
00:00 EZ, CH, GB- Holiday
All Day Global PMIs
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
Tue 2 May
All Day Global PMIs
Wed 3 May
All Day Global PMIs
07:55 DE- Employment
09:00 EZ- GDP
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
Thu 4 May
All Day Global PMIs
Fri 5 May
12:30 US, CA- Employment

Forex Trading Outlook

Items likely to drive FX rates:
  • EVENT RISK: Friday @ 12:30 GMT US GDP Preliminary 1Q17 data seen at 1.20% vs. +2.10%. Important data.

  • EURUSD has surged on a flash EZ HICP data beat. Recall Draghi focus on inflation yesterday.

  • U.K. GDP U.K. Preliminary 1Q17 GDP data were a bit weaker than forecast

  • Markets had reacted strongly to the ECB policy decision Thursday. As expected, policy was held steady. Many were unhappy that there were no signals about a future policy "normalization" (tightening).

  • Please comment...

    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com


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