TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Quiet end to 2011 but sovereign concerns expected to heat up fast next year
Friday, December 30, 2011
TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Quiet end to 2011 but sovereign concerns expected to heat up fast next year
***Economic Data*** - (EU) ECB: â‚¬17.3B borrowed in overnight loan facility v â‚¬4.3B prior; â‚¬445.7B parked in deposit facility (second highest on record) vs. â‚¬436.6B prior - (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 26th (RUB): 6.81T v 6.68T prior - (FI) Finland Oct Final Trade Balance: -â‚¬621M v -â‚¬605M prelim - (UK) Dec Nationwide House prices M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.5%e - (TH) Thailand Nov Current Account Balance: -$136M v -$739Me; Total Trade Account Balance: $0.2B v $1.0B prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$1.5B v -$1.9B prior - (TH) Thailand Nov Business Sentiment Index: 39.0 v 36.7 prior - (CH) Swiss Central Bank publishes Balance Sheet Data: Currency holdings CHF261.9B vs. CHF261.8B prior - (ES) Spain Dec Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e; EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e - (TR) Turkey Nov Trade Balance: -$7.5B v -$7.9Be - (SE) Sweden Oct Non-Manual Worker Wages Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.2% prior - (EU) Dec EuroCoin Indicator M/M: -0.20 vs. -0.20 prior - (HK) Hong Kong Nov M2 Money Supply Y/Y: +3.6% v -3.7% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: +3.5% v -3.8% prior - (ES) Spain Oct Cash Balance: â‚¬27.2B v â‚¬31.5B prior month - (CZ) Czech Nov Money Supply Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.3% prior - (IT) Italy Nov PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.4%e - (MA) Malaysia Nov M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 12.4% v 11.4% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Nov Govt Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): -1.5BB v +28.0B prior - (ES) Spain Oct Current Account: +0.5B v -â‚¬3.6B prior - (UK) Q3 BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal: -Â£8.6B v -Â£9.0Be - (GR) Greece Oct Retail Sales Value Y/Y -8.1% v -3.7% prior; Retail Sales Volume: -10.8% v -6.5% prior - (PT) Portugal Nov Industrial Production M/M: -1.6% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.1% v 0.4% prior - (PT) Portugal Nov Retail Sales M/M: -2.6% v -3.0% prior; Y/Y: -9.2% v -9.7% prior
Fixed income: - (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B targeted in 2017, 2024, 2027 and 2041 bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** ***Notes/Observations*** - China Dec Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI revised slightly better but remained below the pivotal 50 level - Hungary's Parliament expected to pass several key legislative matters to the ire of EU officials - Wishing all TTN clients a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year
Equities: FTSE 100 -0.25% at 5,552, DAX -0.10% at 5844, CAC-40 flat at 3128, IBEX 35 +0.20% at 8503, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 14,940, SMI +0.40% at 5917
-European equity indices open the session higher, amid gains in most banking and mining shares. However, since the open banks have pared their advance following the sharp rise in the use of the ECB's overnight borrowing facility and underperformers include French banks, as the French/German 10-yr yield spread has widened on the session. For the entire 2011, major European indices are on track to end the year lower (Approximate YTD performance of EU indices: - Shares of Blacks Leisure [BSLA.UK] are lower by more than 5%, despite a press report which said that there are more than 3 bidders for the company's assets. BG [BG.UK] has gained more than 1%, after confirming that the Brazilian Guara oil field was declared commercially viable. Portuguese bank, BCP [BCP.PO], has gained more than 6% on renewed speculation that Chinese investors could acquire a stake in the company. Swiss refiner Petroplus [PPHN.SZ] has swung between gains and losses. Earlier in the session, Petroplus said that it would start shutting down its Petit Couronne refinery (approx 162K bpd) in France early next week, as the facility could soon run out of crude supplies. A separate report said that the refiner is believed to have entered financing talks with a group of banks.
Speakers: - German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that he ruled out euro zone break up and wouldl have risk of contagion under control in EU crisis in next 12 months. He added that the euro was a stable currency and that Europe was doing all that is possible to maintain confidence. He was concerned that the early 2012 refinancing requirements for EU was not trivial and reiterated that he saw no indications of a credit crunch. Lastly he reiterated ESM active in middle of next year. - Spain's government could seek to reduce government spending by 30% - Bank of Korea (BoK) Gov Kim commented that inflationary expectations continued to be high and needed to pay closer attention to inflation target - Greece was said to be in discussions with Troika regarding asset backed bonds in relation to Greece possibly using state-owned assets as collateral for new bonds. The 5-yr "privatization bonds" would allow Athens to convert certain public debt into a type of asset-backed bond. - Poland Central Bank Zielinska-Glebocka commented that the PLN currency was a bit undervalued and should track the EUR in 2012. She also noted that Zloty currency volatility was a big problem but central bank intervention had been successful and were performed on a sporadic basis. She saw the risks as balanced for both the Polish inflation front and economic activity. Lastly she did not see any monetary policy rate moves in early 2012 (Jan Feb period) - Japan Finance Min Azumi reiterated that Japan planned to do what it could to support Europe, but wanted EU officials to solve their debt problems. The minister also commented that he was confident that Japan's domestic demand would pick up in 2012 And that the Japanese Govt aimed to agree on comprehensive tax plan in early next year. - Japan Finance Ministry (MOF): Confirms that it did not intervene in the fx market in Dec
Currencies: - A very quiet European session was observed ahead of calendar year-end. The Euro maintained a soft tone but remained just above its 2011 low of 1.2858 while EUR/JPY cross managed to hold above the 100.00 level. - Markets might react to Hungary Parliament once its passes its Central Bank law that the EU believed would harm the independence of the central bank and jeopardize the EU/IMF precautionary loan discussions - The new year will likely bring the focus of European sovereigns back onto the front burner with expectations that the major rating agencies might formally announce any changes to previously issued warnings on multiple countries in the region.
Political/ In the Papers: - According to the Telegraph, the German government adviser Beatrice Weder di Mauro refused to rule out a break-up of the euro zone. Di Mauro, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that while the collapse of the single currency would be bad for everyone involved, it cannot be completely excluded. Note the comments were from a Bild interview which was originally published on Thursday, Dec 29th, in which di Mauro suggested that Germany's 2012 GDP growth could be below the government's 1% target. - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard stated that the EU money supply data is flashing warning signals about the economic outlook. The recent contraction in the M3 money supply has raised concerns about a potential credit crunch. The money supply data signal the EU economy will move into a recession. The contraction in the money supply is more acute among the peripheral countries. The money supply is now contracting as it did in 2008 when Lehman Brothers failed. - In a poll conducted by the BBC, a significant majority of economists see a European recession in 2012. Approximately 20% said the euro zone would not exist in its current form, while a majority put the possibility of a euro zone break-up in 30-40% range. The polling data included 34 UK and European economists who advise the Bank of England on a regular basis. - Following yesterday's Hungarian bond auction, the BBC reported that the Hungarian government abandoned part of its planned debt auction, cancelling its three-year auction due to the range of yields offered was seen as too wide. Hungary is already in discussions with the European Commission and the IMF regarding refinancing. Back in 2008, when Hungary abandoned an auction, it was eventually forced to seek assistance from the IMF.
***Looking Ahead*** - (BE) Belgium Nov YTD Budget Balance: no est v -â‚¬18.2B prior - 6:30 (IN) India Q3 Current Account Balance: -$17.0Be v -$14.1B prior - 7:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -9.9B prior - 8:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Inflation Expectations: No est v 4.2% prior - 8:00 (PL) Poland Q3 Current Account: -â‚¬6.0Be v -â‚¬3.4B prior - 10:00 (US) Dec NAPM-Milwaukee: 58.5e v 56.7 prior - 20:00 (CN) China Dec PMI Manufacturing: 49.1e v 49.0 prior
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The key event Thursday will be the latest ECB policy meeting. At the last meeting, President Draghi announced that the central bank would extend its bond purchase program to the end of 2017. The central bank will continue to purchase bonds at the current monthly pace of EUR 80 billion until the end of March. From April 2017, net asset purchases will continue at a reduced monthly pace of EUR 60 billion until the end of December 2017. One question some have is will the ECB speed up the tapering of its bond purchases later this year. With the ECB still not having even STARTED to taper, it is premature to expect a new announcement as early as this meeting.
The rest of this week sees a calendar chock full of potentially market-moving events. See calendar above. On Friday, January 20 starting at 11:00 ET, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. President. His inaugural address will be carefully combed for any items related to economic policy.
The Trump comment that he would use forex as a policy tool would be a new element for the markets. The Trump comments rattled the markets.
The Tuesday Brexit speech by U.K. PM May continues to impact trade.on her plans for Brexit. May said she wanted no "half-in or half-out" agreements. Her goal remains complete political independence from the EU. The GBP remains vulnerable.
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