TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Quiet end to 2011 but sovereign concerns expected to heat up fast next year
Friday, December 30, 2011
TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Quiet end to 2011 but sovereign concerns expected to heat up fast next year
***Economic Data*** - (EU) ECB: â‚¬17.3B borrowed in overnight loan facility v â‚¬4.3B prior; â‚¬445.7B parked in deposit facility (second highest on record) vs. â‚¬436.6B prior - (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 26th (RUB): 6.81T v 6.68T prior - (FI) Finland Oct Final Trade Balance: -â‚¬621M v -â‚¬605M prelim - (UK) Dec Nationwide House prices M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.5%e - (TH) Thailand Nov Current Account Balance: -$136M v -$739Me; Total Trade Account Balance: $0.2B v $1.0B prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$1.5B v -$1.9B prior - (TH) Thailand Nov Business Sentiment Index: 39.0 v 36.7 prior - (CH) Swiss Central Bank publishes Balance Sheet Data: Currency holdings CHF261.9B vs. CHF261.8B prior - (ES) Spain Dec Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e; EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e - (TR) Turkey Nov Trade Balance: -$7.5B v -$7.9Be - (SE) Sweden Oct Non-Manual Worker Wages Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.2% prior - (EU) Dec EuroCoin Indicator M/M: -0.20 vs. -0.20 prior - (HK) Hong Kong Nov M2 Money Supply Y/Y: +3.6% v -3.7% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: +3.5% v -3.8% prior - (ES) Spain Oct Cash Balance: â‚¬27.2B v â‚¬31.5B prior month - (CZ) Czech Nov Money Supply Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.3% prior - (IT) Italy Nov PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.4%e - (MA) Malaysia Nov M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 12.4% v 11.4% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Nov Govt Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): -1.5BB v +28.0B prior - (ES) Spain Oct Current Account: +0.5B v -â‚¬3.6B prior - (UK) Q3 BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal: -Â£8.6B v -Â£9.0Be - (GR) Greece Oct Retail Sales Value Y/Y -8.1% v -3.7% prior; Retail Sales Volume: -10.8% v -6.5% prior - (PT) Portugal Nov Industrial Production M/M: -1.6% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.1% v 0.4% prior - (PT) Portugal Nov Retail Sales M/M: -2.6% v -3.0% prior; Y/Y: -9.2% v -9.7% prior
Fixed income: - (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B targeted in 2017, 2024, 2027 and 2041 bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** ***Notes/Observations*** - China Dec Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI revised slightly better but remained below the pivotal 50 level - Hungary's Parliament expected to pass several key legislative matters to the ire of EU officials - Wishing all TTN clients a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year
Equities: FTSE 100 -0.25% at 5,552, DAX -0.10% at 5844, CAC-40 flat at 3128, IBEX 35 +0.20% at 8503, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 14,940, SMI +0.40% at 5917
-European equity indices open the session higher, amid gains in most banking and mining shares. However, since the open banks have pared their advance following the sharp rise in the use of the ECB's overnight borrowing facility and underperformers include French banks, as the French/German 10-yr yield spread has widened on the session. For the entire 2011, major European indices are on track to end the year lower (Approximate YTD performance of EU indices: - Shares of Blacks Leisure [BSLA.UK] are lower by more than 5%, despite a press report which said that there are more than 3 bidders for the company's assets. BG [BG.UK] has gained more than 1%, after confirming that the Brazilian Guara oil field was declared commercially viable. Portuguese bank, BCP [BCP.PO], has gained more than 6% on renewed speculation that Chinese investors could acquire a stake in the company. Swiss refiner Petroplus [PPHN.SZ] has swung between gains and losses. Earlier in the session, Petroplus said that it would start shutting down its Petit Couronne refinery (approx 162K bpd) in France early next week, as the facility could soon run out of crude supplies. A separate report said that the refiner is believed to have entered financing talks with a group of banks.
Speakers: - German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that he ruled out euro zone break up and wouldl have risk of contagion under control in EU crisis in next 12 months. He added that the euro was a stable currency and that Europe was doing all that is possible to maintain confidence. He was concerned that the early 2012 refinancing requirements for EU was not trivial and reiterated that he saw no indications of a credit crunch. Lastly he reiterated ESM active in middle of next year. - Spain's government could seek to reduce government spending by 30% - Bank of Korea (BoK) Gov Kim commented that inflationary expectations continued to be high and needed to pay closer attention to inflation target - Greece was said to be in discussions with Troika regarding asset backed bonds in relation to Greece possibly using state-owned assets as collateral for new bonds. The 5-yr "privatization bonds" would allow Athens to convert certain public debt into a type of asset-backed bond. - Poland Central Bank Zielinska-Glebocka commented that the PLN currency was a bit undervalued and should track the EUR in 2012. She also noted that Zloty currency volatility was a big problem but central bank intervention had been successful and were performed on a sporadic basis. She saw the risks as balanced for both the Polish inflation front and economic activity. Lastly she did not see any monetary policy rate moves in early 2012 (Jan Feb period) - Japan Finance Min Azumi reiterated that Japan planned to do what it could to support Europe, but wanted EU officials to solve their debt problems. The minister also commented that he was confident that Japan's domestic demand would pick up in 2012 And that the Japanese Govt aimed to agree on comprehensive tax plan in early next year. - Japan Finance Ministry (MOF): Confirms that it did not intervene in the fx market in Dec
Currencies: - A very quiet European session was observed ahead of calendar year-end. The Euro maintained a soft tone but remained just above its 2011 low of 1.2858 while EUR/JPY cross managed to hold above the 100.00 level. - Markets might react to Hungary Parliament once its passes its Central Bank law that the EU believed would harm the independence of the central bank and jeopardize the EU/IMF precautionary loan discussions - The new year will likely bring the focus of European sovereigns back onto the front burner with expectations that the major rating agencies might formally announce any changes to previously issued warnings on multiple countries in the region.
Political/ In the Papers: - According to the Telegraph, the German government adviser Beatrice Weder di Mauro refused to rule out a break-up of the euro zone. Di Mauro, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that while the collapse of the single currency would be bad for everyone involved, it cannot be completely excluded. Note the comments were from a Bild interview which was originally published on Thursday, Dec 29th, in which di Mauro suggested that Germany's 2012 GDP growth could be below the government's 1% target. - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard stated that the EU money supply data is flashing warning signals about the economic outlook. The recent contraction in the M3 money supply has raised concerns about a potential credit crunch. The money supply data signal the EU economy will move into a recession. The contraction in the money supply is more acute among the peripheral countries. The money supply is now contracting as it did in 2008 when Lehman Brothers failed. - In a poll conducted by the BBC, a significant majority of economists see a European recession in 2012. Approximately 20% said the euro zone would not exist in its current form, while a majority put the possibility of a euro zone break-up in 30-40% range. The polling data included 34 UK and European economists who advise the Bank of England on a regular basis. - Following yesterday's Hungarian bond auction, the BBC reported that the Hungarian government abandoned part of its planned debt auction, cancelling its three-year auction due to the range of yields offered was seen as too wide. Hungary is already in discussions with the European Commission and the IMF regarding refinancing. Back in 2008, when Hungary abandoned an auction, it was eventually forced to seek assistance from the IMF.
***Looking Ahead*** - (BE) Belgium Nov YTD Budget Balance: no est v -â‚¬18.2B prior - 6:30 (IN) India Q3 Current Account Balance: -$17.0Be v -$14.1B prior - 7:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -9.9B prior - 8:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Inflation Expectations: No est v 4.2% prior - 8:00 (PL) Poland Q3 Current Account: -â‚¬6.0Be v -â‚¬3.4B prior - 10:00 (US) Dec NAPM-Milwaukee: 58.5e v 56.7 prior - 20:00 (CN) China Dec PMI Manufacturing: 49.1e v 49.0 prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium Mon 23 Apr 2018 A All Day- Flash PMIs AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 Apr 2018 AA 01:30 AU- CPI A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- CB Confidence A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales Wed 25 Apr 2018 AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 Apr 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 27 Apr 2018 AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan A 08:00 DE- Employment A 08:30 GB- GDP A 14:00 US- University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.