User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday June 9, 2005 - 13:50:14 GMT
INVESTICA Ltd - www.investica.co.uk

Share This Story:
| | Email

US and European de-industrialisation

The evidence on G7 economic trends, bond yields and commodity prices has been generally contradictory over the past few weeks with mixed signals on the strength of growth. Lower bond yields in major markets and evidence of weaker manufacturing activity have been contradicted by firm commodity prices. One possible explanation is that the North American and European economies are now losing market share at a faster pace in the global manufacturing economy.

This pattern would help explain the contradiction of apparently slowing growth and still-high commodity prices with global output not weakening, but being switched to emerging markets in Asia and Eastern Europe. The dominance of the US Treasury market may also be distorting bond yields lower.

If this pattern is taking hold, there will be the risk of a deteriorating trade performances within the Euro-zone and Americas. This would be particularly important within the US given that the current account deficit is already around 6.0% of GDP. A renewed widening of the US trade deficit would tend to undermine dollar confidence. In the medium term, there would also be pressure for dollar depreciation against Asian currencies and quite possibly emerging markets in general. It would also imply that the Euro would struggle to take advantage of any renewed US dollar vulnerability.


Manufacturing deterioration

The latest industrial data from the Euro-zone and US economies has been disappointing. The Euro-zone PMI index for the manufacturing index remained below the 50.0 level for the second successive month in May and the UK index also continued to deteriorate with the CIPS index for manufacturing weakening to 47.3, the lowest reading since March 2003. A level below the 50.0 level indicates that the manufacturing sector is contracting. The US index remained above the 50.0 level, but the ISM index for the manufacturing sector still fell to a 2-year low. The Canadian manufacturing sector has also weakened over the past few weeks, but the Japanese indicators have improved slightly.

The data on the face of it points to a slowdown in the global economy. Global PMI indices have not, however, recorded a serious deterioration which suggests the difficulties may be confined more locally. There have, for example, been well-publicised difficulties in the US auto sector.

Contradictory evidence

The evidence from other markets is mixed and generally points to a confusing picture. Oil prices have pushed back to near US$ 55/pb before weakening slightly and commodity prices remain at high levels. Commodity prices may of course be pushed higher by speculation rather than underlying physical demand for commodities, but the evidence suggests that metal demand is still firm.

Bond yields in the major economies have continued to weaken. US Treasury yields have fallen to below 4.0% despite the series of Federal Reserve interest rate increases while German yields have fallen to near 3.1%. The bond market performance suggests that markets are expecting a sharp economic slowdown within the next few months.

Services sector indicators have also signalled some slowdown in growth, but have held relatively firm. Monetary and fiscal policies are still expansionary or at worst neutral even with the US rate increases. The overall monetary and fiscal stance should not be weakening the manufacturing sectors seriously at this stage of the cycle.

Priced out of markets

It is, therefore, possible that the manufacturing sectors in the Euro-zone and North American economies are being priced out of global markets. There have already been particular concerns over the Italian economy which has struggled to strengthen productivity and lower unit costs since the Euro was introduced in 1999. The Italian economy as a whole is now back into recession.

The evidence may now suggest that power-house emerging-market manufacturers such as China and India are grabbing market share at the expense of the US and Europe. Industrial relocation to lower-cost manufacturing plants has been an important feature throughout the past few years and will inevitably continue. There will, however, now be concern that the process is accelerating due in part to currency distortions. The deterioration in the US and Euro-zone manufacturing performance in comparison with Japan may suggest that Asia is gaining ground. There is also tentative evidence that the new EU members from Eastern Europe are starting to erode manufacturing capacity in the ‘old’ European economies.

Bonds may be missing shifting growth

With Asian central banks buying Treasury bonds and global markets keying off US bonds, the strength in other parts of the global economy may not be picked up by the markets which would help explain why US bond yields are lower than expected even though the US Federal Reserve has been tightening policy.

The resistance to currency gains in emerging economies may also be contributing to the switching of industrial capacity abroad as real exchange rates in Asia are too low. In this context, the Chinese exchange rate will inevitably be a very important focus, although wider regional trends will also be important. The overall evidence, therefore, suggests that Asian currencies will probably need to strengthen significantly in the medium term.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105