***Economic data*** - (IN) India Q3 Current Account Balance: -$16.9B v -$17.0Be - (ZA) South Africa Nov Budget Balance (ZAR): -28.6B v -9.9B prior - (RU) Russia Dec Consumer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%3, Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.3%e - (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Inflation Expectations: 4.8% v 4.2% prior - (PL) Poland Q3 Current Account: -â‚¬4.7B v -â‚¬6.0Be - (RU) Russia Q3 Current Account: $18.4B v $23.8B prior - (US) Dec New York ISM Business Index 51.1 v 47.2 prior - (US) Dec NAPM-Milwaukee: 57.8 v 56.7 prior
- Markets are trading sideways this morning in very light volume. There has been little significant economic data on tap and most traders remain on the sidelines. Hungary's parliament passed a controversial law to rein in its central bank, threatening to derail the country's bid for new financial backing from the EU and the IMF. Spain said its budget deficit would likely be much wider than expected for 2011, and unveiled an â‚¬8.9B austerity package. EUR/JPY tested below the 100 level just as the NY portion of the trading day commenced for the first time since June 2001. EUR/USD is holding steady just off its 2011 lows, setting the pair up to end the year below the 1.30 handle.
***Looking Ahead*** - (CN) China Dec PMI Manufacturing: 49.1e v 49.0 prior
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The key event Thursday will be the latest ECB policy meeting. At the last meeting, President Draghi announced that the central bank would extend its bond purchase program to the end of 2017. The central bank will continue to purchase bonds at the current monthly pace of EUR 80 billion until the end of March. From April 2017, net asset purchases will continue at a reduced monthly pace of EUR 60 billion until the end of December 2017. One question some have is will the ECB speed up the tapering of its bond purchases later this year. With the ECB still not having even STARTED to taper, it is premature to expect a new announcement as early as this meeting.
The rest of this week sees a calendar chock full of potentially market-moving events. See calendar above. On Friday, January 20 starting at 11:00 ET, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. President. His inaugural address will be carefully combed for any items related to economic policy.
The Trump comment that he would use forex as a policy tool would be a new element for the markets. The Trump comments rattled the markets.
The Tuesday Brexit speech by U.K. PM May continues to impact trade.on her plans for Brexit. May said she wanted no "half-in or half-out" agreements. Her goal remains complete political independence from the EU. The GBP remains vulnerable.
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