***Economic data*** - (IN) India Q3 Current Account Balance: -$16.9B v -$17.0Be - (ZA) South Africa Nov Budget Balance (ZAR): -28.6B v -9.9B prior - (RU) Russia Dec Consumer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%3, Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.3%e - (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Inflation Expectations: 4.8% v 4.2% prior - (PL) Poland Q3 Current Account: -â‚¬4.7B v -â‚¬6.0Be - (RU) Russia Q3 Current Account: $18.4B v $23.8B prior - (US) Dec New York ISM Business Index 51.1 v 47.2 prior - (US) Dec NAPM-Milwaukee: 57.8 v 56.7 prior
- Markets are trading sideways this morning in very light volume. There has been little significant economic data on tap and most traders remain on the sidelines. Hungary's parliament passed a controversial law to rein in its central bank, threatening to derail the country's bid for new financial backing from the EU and the IMF. Spain said its budget deficit would likely be much wider than expected for 2011, and unveiled an â‚¬8.9B austerity package. EUR/JPY tested below the 100 level just as the NY portion of the trading day commenced for the first time since June 2001. EUR/USD is holding steady just off its 2011 lows, setting the pair up to end the year below the 1.30 handle.
***Looking Ahead*** - (CN) China Dec PMI Manufacturing: 49.1e v 49.0 prior
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WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar: 28 Mar Tue
14:00 US- CB Confidence 29 Mar Wed
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude 30 Mar Thu
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- GDP
23:30 JP- CPI 31 Mar Fri
7:55 DE- Jobless
8:30 GB- GDP
9:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
14:00 US- final Univ of Mich 2 Apr Sun
00:00 AU/NZ- Clocks "Fall Back"
Forex Market: items driving the market to start the new week:
Event Risk: The fallout from Heathcare fiasco last Friday has started to abate. The new focus is worry about the Trump economic agenda with getting legislative approval a growing issue.
Event Risk: A new Scotland Independence referendum will be considered by the Scottish Parliament today, while the May government will invoke EU Article 50 tomorrow (March 29). Last week's terrorist event could strengthen her hand.
There is a growing perception that the ECB might start to consider stepping back from excessive policy ease. Watch flash HICP data Friday. The March German Ifo Survey (Monday) was considerably stronger than expected and will be noted by the ECB.
Lots to consider. Please comment...
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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