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Friday June 10, 2005 - 11:19:31 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Euro capitulation...

Quotable

“Shallow ideas can be assimilated; ideas that require people to reorganize their picture of the world provoke hostility.”

James Gleick, Chaos

FX Trading

It seems the big boys are capitulating to the trend (from the FT this morning):

• JP Morgan slashed its year-end forecast for euro/dollar to $1.20, from $1.30.

• BNP Paribas said it saw the euro falling as low as $1.16 by the third quarter of 2005 (previously $1.25) before recovering to $1.28 (rather $1.40) by the first quarter of 2006.

We particularly liked BNP’s astute comments justifying its new forecast:

“Rising economic and fiscal divergence within Europe suggests that euroland is no longer recognised as a homogenous aggregate, but as a conglomerate of countries with different credit risks, working against the euro.”

“No longer recognized as a homogenous aggregate,” is right, which is a reality coming into focus now as Europeans stare down the barrel of recession. Monetary Union makes for great bedfellows and overarching political hyperbole when times are good. When times get tough, monetary unions have a way of getting going, as the intelligentsia/political cabal can no longer justify grabbing sovereignty when they have seemingly nothing in return to offer (for after all, they created growth, didn’t they?). Sooner or later the serfs catch on to the game.

Now, if we juxtapose this new paradigm—now dawning on the big boy banks—against Mr. Greenspan’s ringing endorsement for the US economy and his not so subtle hints that rates are headed higher, what do we get?

Ultimately it adds one more wrinkle to our ongoing theme favoring the dollar over the euro—which by the way was developed very early in January:

1) The yield differential in favor of the dollar continues to grow—and it may leap if the ECB does the “right thing” and cuts interest rates

2) The US wins the relative economic growth game—and it could surge well ahead of the pack very soon

And here is the new wrinkle:

3) The euro is no longer viewed by a crystallized majority as the logical alternative to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. Much in the way of long-term confidence in the euro has been drained off. Maybe it regains this confidence after weathering this mini-storm. Or maybe things spiral out of control.

We have already fielded some silly and some serious emails from readers that have criticized any talk of the single currency coming apart.

In our defense we paraphrase Karl Popper, the foundation of the Black Swan Event:

Theories that have not yet been known to be wrong, not falsified yet, are exposed to be proved wrong.

In other words, if we expected the euro to come apart, it wouldn’t be a Black Swan Event when/if it does.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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