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Monday June 13, 2005 - 11:19:25 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Aussie derailment?

Quotable

“The more acceptable and credible a system is, the more it influences current decision-making and therefore modifies future expectations.”

F.J. Chu, The Mind of the Market

FX Trading

The wheels of industry may be grinding down. Take a look at the beginning of the breakdown in the Dow Transportation Index:

Now consider some key statistics courtesy of Weldon’s Money Monitor, penned by Greg Weldon:
“From a MACRO perspective, we find the breakdown of loading by industry to be MOST enlightening, as we shine the spotlight on the following figures:

• Motor Vehicle loading … down by a deep, and deepening (-) 7.5% yr-yr, marking the sixth consecutive week of yr-yr contraction.

• Metal and Metal Product loading … DEEPLY negative and into a double-digit pace of contraction, at minus (-) 15.8% yr-yr rate. Observe the week-week PLUNGE on a yr-yr basis:

Jun-10 … down (-) 15.8%
Jun-03 … down (-) 12.3%
May-27 … down (-) 4.5%
May-20 … down (-) 3.8%
May-13 … down (-) 2.5%
May-06 … up + 2.9%

• Waste and Scrap loading … down (-) 7.6% yr-yr, dumping from last week’s yr-yr decline of (-) 1.9% … and a complete collapse from the growth rate of + 2.9% posted just three weeks ago.

AND … by sector, other highlights within the ARA data imply some slowing ala the construction industry, as we note the following micro tid-bits:

• Nonmetallic mineral loading … down (-) 6.7% yr-yr, marking the
sixth consecutive week of contraction.

• Lumber and Wood Products loading … up + 2.2% yr-yr, slowing from
+3.4% yr-yr two weeks ago.

• Stone, Clay, and Glass loading … up + 3.3% … a significant slide compared to the + 7.7% yr-yr rate posted in the beginning of May.

“Hence, amid disinflation in loading demand … investors in reflated rail stocks have pulled the emergency brake.”

Now, add to these stats, key news story number two above from the Journal this morning: Rates for shipping iron ore, grain, coal and other commodities have fallen nearly 25% in the past six weeks, and we have the signs for a real slowdown in commodities demand not just in the US, but across the globe. Hmmm!

And who is our favorite commodities currency—still offering above average yield, but its central bank is on hold and housing market in a bit of trouble (yes, a very loaded question)?

The Aussie dollar!

Back to the Dow Jones Transport chart—this time we juxtapose the Aussie on top (below):


There appears a “fairly” close correlation between the Aussie and DJT Index, using the naked eye. And one more chart for the Fibonacci aficionados (try to say that three times really fast!).

Also, technically, and talking our story, we are seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows on the Aussie daily chart. Often a trend lower is in place.

The dollar is off to a rip-roaring start already this week. But again this morning, the Aussie is very strong relative to the rest of the pack. We have predicted at least five of the last one falls in the Aussie over the past several months. The currency’s had strong support given the ebb in the global demand backdrop. There could be something to the argument that more hedged players who thought the euro a slam dunk winner against the buck, have been moving to Aussie for yield.

If commodities have derailed, and Mr. G is true to his expectations, higher relative US yields could mean the buck will soon blow by the Aussie.


Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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