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Monday June 13, 2005 - 13:32:15 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD remains vulnerable – 1.1950-85 the key short-term support area.

• USD-JPY breaks key level at 108.90. SEK is even weaker than the EUR.

• UK house price inflation dips sharply.

Market Outlook

No mention of exchange rates in the G8 communiqué, although the UK’s Brown was at pains to confirm that this was because the current G8 meeting was one of preparation for the main G8 summit next month. Such meetings typically don’t include a specific reference to FX – this being left to the full heads of state summit. Brown said that pressure on Asian countries to change FX was maintained at the meetings that had taken place. In sum then, the meeting was pretty much a non-event in terms of fresh market-moving developments.

The EUR has remained weak through Asia and Europe after the poor performance seen on Friday and there is now risk down to an area running from 1.1950-1.2020. The 1.1950-85 area is particularly important as it held EUR-USD on a number of occasions from June to September last year and represents important buffer support ahead of the 2004 low of 1.1759. However, this area should hold initially, given the scale of the recent move lower, which has been without much correction. Latest IMM data showed no major change in spec positioning on EUR-USD.

While the EUR has been weak, the SEK has been even weaker. 9.26 is the next resistance level on EUR-SEK, although this may give way ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data, where the market is looking for a further fall in the core y/y rate.

Japanese data (GDP and ind prod) was marginally weaker than expected, but it still paints a reasonable economic picture. However, the JPY has moved into perilous territory against the USD, this morning breaking above the April 5 high of 108.89. There is now short-term upside risk towards 110 and higher.

The NZD and AUD have also suffered against the USD, although the NZD received temporary support from the retail sales data last night. The stronger than expected 0.7% advance was accompanied by an upward revision to March (from -0.5% to -0.3%) and with sales very strong in Jan and Feb, the RBNZ claim about generally strong demand will hold water for now. The NZD needs to get back above 0.7100 to alleviate some of the downside risk that developed after Friday’s price action, while 0.7650 is similarly significant for the AUD.

UK PPI data was fairly uneventful, although the government’s own measure of house prices revealed a very sharp slowdown in y/y inflation. The latter fell to +6.9% from +12.6% in March. This data is more comprehensive than that provided by individual lenders like the Nationwide and HBOS, not least because it is based on actual completions data rather than the prices indicated at the mortgage approvals stage. It also includes data from more lenders. The RICS survey of house prices is due this evening.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

Market Holiday - Australia
GB RICS house price balance (May) 19.30 -38
AU NAB business survey (May) 21.30
AU RBA’s MacFarlane speaks 23.25

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Retail sales (Apr) m/m +0.7% +0.5%
JP GDP (Q1 2nd est) q/q +1.2% +1.4%
CN CPI (May) y/y +1.8% +1.8% last
JP Ind prod (Apr, final) m/m +1.9% +2.2%
GB PPI input (May) m/m +0.3% -0.5%
GB PPI output (May) m/m -0.2% +0.2%
GB PPI output core (May) y/y +2.6% +2.6%
GB ODPM house prices (Apr) y/y +6.9% +9.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook

Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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