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Tuesday June 14, 2005 - 13:27:36 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD bounces back ahead of this week’s numerous US data releases – above 1.2150-60 needed to see further extension.

• 13-yr low on RICS survey temporarily hurts GBP – rate cut looks likely in UK.

• RBA’s MacFarlane signals steady rates.

• Swedish inflation ahead of expectations, but still very weak.

• US retail sales and PPI feature today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has managed to hold above 1.2100 in Europe after the bounce seen yesterday and extension higher in Asia. It briefly traded above 1.2150 in Europe, although this and 1.2160 (previous support) will need to be breached to prolong the upmove in the short-term. There have been no obvious factors spurring this recovery, although some element of corrective activity should not be surprising given the scale of the recent move and the large amount of US data to come this week. Retail sales and PPI is due today (see below). Near-term support on EUR-USD comes in at yesterday’s low of 1.2027, with 1.1950-85 beyond that, although below 1.2104 would be a weak intermediate signal. USD-JPY has remained strong through the night following yesterday’s significant break above 108.89 (now support). There is risk up to 110 at least in the short-term unless some very poor USD news can emerge from this week’s reports.

The poor RICS house price survey in the UK (see chart) hurt GBP for a time, but EUR-GBP needs to get back above 0.6735 to nullify current downside risk and this could be difficult without a more convincing EUR rally in general. The RICS survey reading of -49% was a new low for this cycle and the worst it has been since November 1992. CPI data released this morning was fairly dull. It was a touch stronger than expected, but does little to influence the current policy debate. However, a precautionary rate cut in the second half of this year now appears likely and a move at the time of the November Inflation Report is our favoured scenario – the August report may come a little too soon for the MPC to have seen sufficient information to change tack. Tomorrow’s UK labour market data is the next item of domestic importance.

Comments from RBA governor MacFarlane helped to consolidate expectations that rates will be unchanged for the foreseeable future. He welcomed the recent signs of slowing domestic demand, stating that this would help prolong the economic expansion overall. He also said that inflation pressures had not developed as much as they had previously thought. The AUD was lower after the speech, but has since recovered and a weaker USD today may help the AUD higher.

Swedish core CPI data came out a touch higher than the market had expected, although was still down on the previous month and very low. Indeed, the data has done little to offset developing rate cut expectations. 9.31-9.33 is the next area to look at on EUR-SEK, having capped it twice in 2003 and once in 2004 and 9.31 was briefly breached this morning in the seconds after the CPI announcement. Any break above this area would technically open the way to the next levels at 9.3960 (Sept 2002 high) and 9.5959 (July 2002 high). It should hold initially, but upside risk will remain in place while above 9.25.
.00 EDT Wednesday June 8 2005
Day Ahead
US – retail sales should be more subdued after the strong rise seen last month, although something worse than -0.3% on exautos sales will be required to convey a truly negative signal about the consumer. As it currently stands, a modest m/m fall would not be a major issue given the advances of +0.4% and +1.4% seen in March and April respectively. However, watch out for revisions to the big April number. Last month’s core PPI was +0.3%, although this came after +0.1% in each of the previous two months and the +0.7% horror number in January now seems a long way off. For now the market is more comfortable with the inflation backdrop and it would seem that the price strength seen earlier in the year were one-off adjustments to higher costs rather than a reflection of the onset of systemic inflationary expectations. However, the market will be easily led by the monthly inflation numbers (PPI, CPI and the core PCE price index) so sentiment will remain fluid.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Jun 11) w/w 07.45 +0.4% last
US Retail sales (May) m/m 08.30 -0.1%
US Retail sales ex-autos (May) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US PPI (May) m/m 08.30 -0.2%
US PPI core (May) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
CA Manu shipments (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
CA New orders (Apr) m/m 08.30 -1.4%
US Redbook sls (w/e Jun 11) m/m 08.55 -0.5% last
US Fed’s Lacker on financial innovation 09.10
US Fed’s Bies on bank regulation 10.15
CH SNB’s Hildebrand spks 10.15
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 12) 17.00 -12 last
US Fed’s Poole spks to money marketeers 18.15

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB RICS house price balance (May) -49 -38
AU NAB business survey (May) +13 +6
FR CPI (May, prel) y/y +1.5% +1.6%
ES CPI (May) y/y +3.1% +3.1%
IT Ind prod (Apr) m/m +1.9% -0.2%
SE CPI (May) y/y +0.1% 0.0%
SE CPI UND1X (May) y/y +0.2% +0.1%
GB CPI (May) y/y +1.9% +1.8%
GB RPIX (May) y/y +2.1% +2.2%
GB RPI (May) y/y +2.9% +3.1%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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