TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Markets await key rate decisions from BOE and ECB; Eurogroup meeting unlikely to make any concrete decision on Greece today
Thursday, February 09, 2012
TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Markets await key rate decisions from BOE and ECB; Eurogroup meeting unlikely to make any concrete decision on Greece today
***Economic Data*** </ >- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank cuts Reference Rate by 25bps to 5.75%; Not expected - (EU) ECB: â‚¬1.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility v â‚¬1.9B prior; â‚¬494.7B parked in deposit facility vs. â‚¬495.4B prior - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Feb 3rd: $507.3B v $504.0B prior - (CH) Swiss Jan SECO Consumer Confidence: -19 v -22e - (FR) France Survey of Industrial Investments: Executives see 2012 manufacturing investment Y/Y: +7vs. +4% prior Oct survey - (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI M/M: -0.1 v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e - (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.5%e - (UK) Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.1%e </ >- (UK) Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.3%e - (UK) Dec Visible Trade Balance: -Â£7.1B v -Â£8.6Be; Total Trade Balance: -Â£1.1B v -Â£2.7Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -Â£3.8B v -Â£5.0Be - (ZA) South Africa Dec Gold Production Y/Y: -8.2% v -4.5% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: +0.9% v -4.4% prior - UN Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) Jan Food Index M/M: 214 v 211 m/m - (GR) Greece Jan Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4% prior - (GR) Greece Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: -11.3% v -7.8% prior - (GR) Greece Nov Unemployment Rate: 20.9% v 18.2% prior (Record high)
Fixed Income: - (SE) Sweden sold SEK750M vs. SEK750M indicated in 0.25% I/L 2022 Bond, Avg yield 0.2900% v 0.3746% prior - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF40B in 2015, 2017 and 2022 Bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** ***Notes/Observations*** - Still lacking a complete and final agreement out of Greece ahead of today's Eurogroup meeting - Ireland: Fin Min Noonan demands relief on Irish debt if ECB makes concessions on Greek debt. - Greek Nov Unemployment at record high of 20.9% with over 1 million unemployed - China inflation a bit higher than expected with RRR cut calls on hold at this time
Equities: </ >FTSE 100 +0.25% at 5890, DAX +0.70% at 6796, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3426, IBEX-35 +0.70% at 8905, FTSE MIB flat at 16,653, SMI -0.10% at 6151
- European shares traded in positive territory ahead of ECB's and BoE's rate decision due later in the NY morning. Traders expect both banks to maintain an accommodative policy. Few analysts expect ECB to cut its interest rate from the 1% level, but amid the Greek turmoil, the central bank is expected to hint at future rate cuts. On the other hand, BoE may increase its Asset Purchase Target. - Earnings were mixed as banks were dragged down by disappointing reports from Credit Suisse and ING. Following its European peers' trend, Credit Suisse [CHGN.CH] reported a net loss which was much wider than the profit expected due to a difficult trading environment which also caused losses in the investment banking unit. ING [INGA.NV] also reported a pretax losses and missed expectations on net due to impairment on Greek government bonds. Board proposed not to pay any dividend. On the other hand, Daimler [DAI.DE] rose as it reported a 39% increase in its profit and exceeded estimates.
Speakers: </ >- Spain Fin Min Guindos commented that the H1 period to be very difficult for Spain compared to year-ago performance but there were no plans for additional tax increases (after a surprise hike in late 2011). Economy might not start to recover until late this year, when unemployment should also peak thus he saw stabilization in H2. Govt remained committed to achieving ambitious deficit-reduction targets this year. The planned Eurogroup meeting today would exert pressure on Greece. - Greece PM Papademos said to be seeking revised 2014 budget targets. Last minute demands said to be complicated the agreement with the EU/IMF/ECB Troika and it was uncertain if Troika deal would be completed ahead of today Eurogroup meeting (schedule for 17:00 GMT) - The LAOS party chief Karatzaferis indicated early Thursday that he was not willing to agree to the new Greek bailout terms at this time due to not having adequate time to study it. Although he did not agree, he did not want to cause any problems and indicated he would keep on supporting it. - Greek labour unions,GSEE and ADEDY, to hold 2-day strike between Feb 10-11th period - German govt official: Sees no decision on Greece at today's Eurogroup meeting in Brussel - South Korea Fin Min Jae-wan commented that Europe should take decisive steps to resolve its debt problems before the Group of 20 leading economies approve a move to boost resources of the IMF - China Commerce Min Chen commented that the January exports probably declined and added that any policy fine-tuning would be supportive of trade. He reiterated the view of maintaining the overall stability of the CNY currency exchange rate - China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) commented that inflation to steadily decline after holiday effects. Pork and vegetable prices would decline after surge due to effects from the holiday and weather. China to steadily increase food supply to help curb prices - Analyst comments on China inflation data and see potential RRR cuts on hold at this time - Austria WIFO: Austria H1 GDP may stagnate - German IFO commented that EMU Q1 economic climate increased to 84.8 v 83.7 prior Q4. It noted that analysts forecasted that EMU monetary policy easing over next 6 months. The economic climate continued to be below the long-term average and it was too early to speak of general economic recovery in EMU, as conditions were weaker in most states, which the exception of Germany. IFO forecasted 2012 inflation averaging 2.3% with inflation outlook lower in most states. - German DIHK Survey saw 2012 GDP growth of 1% with exports rising 3.5%. Overall, companies in Germany remained optimistic about 2012 and saw positive German GDP growth in Q1. - Moodys commented on Indonesia and expressed concern about impact of recent rate cuts on the country's inflationary expectations. Moody's stated that it was odd for the central bank to cut interest rates when domestic demand was robust but added it still had confidence in its central bank policy - UN FAO senior economist commented that it saw the scope for food price increase in Feb due to high energy prices and other external factors - China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that it continued to see int'l payment surplus this year and could not rule out periodic capital outflows as outflow pressures had increased since end of last year. It noted that two-way CNY currency price trend at its initial stage as expectations for a one-way directional path has been broken
Currencies: - The USD remained softer against the European pairs in the session although off its worst levels. The Eurogroup meeting is scheduled to proceed later today after the European equity markets close but unlikely to resolve any issues on Greece. - The EUR/USD probed above the 1.33 handle early on but cautious comments by a German official on Greece tempered some of the recent risk-on appetite. - The EUR/JPY remained below the pivotal 103 level with Euro-buy stop orders rumored to be layered above. Dealers have noted that the cross would likely lead the direction for other euro-related pairs at this time. - The USD/JPY was capped at 77.25 level in the session with various moving averages providing some technical headwinds in the apir. - The GBP remained slightly positive against the greenback ahead of the BOE rate decision. Analysts are looking for the MPC to increase its Asset purchase target by Â£50B to Â£325B at today's decision. Better industrial and manufacturing data might provide the basis of a surprise in holding off the expectations and have the BOE keep its powder dry for the time being to assess the global environment and inflation developments.
Political/ In the Papers: - The Irish government published the 2012 Finance Bill with the bulk of the bill aimed at job creation. Notable items include new tax reliefs, not in the budget, to facilitate job creation, and increased mortgage interest relief of 30% for those who purchased homes during 2004-2008 period and 2012. The Minister of Finance Noonan said, "The Budget contained a number of targeted supports for employment for both the foreign direct investment and SME sectors and the bill provides additional details of the support for financial services flagged in December". - Credit ratings agency Moody's said approximately â‚¬35B of Irish mortgage debt faces being written down under proposals in the government's personal insolvency legislation. It also sees property prices to decline by an average of 60% from their highs, leaving about 75% of mortgages in negative equity, with debt forgiveness to replace repossession as mortgage lenders try to deal with mortgages that cannot be repaid. The Minister of Finance Noonan replied and said that the draft legislation would not be published until the end of April, and that it was early for a rating agency to make any kind of a call on that. Note that under the government proposals, mortgage debt write-offs have to secure the approval of 75% of mortgage lenders, under a Personal Insolvency Arrangement. - The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard made notes on the rally in corporate bonds which has been largely driven by central bank easing measures. In the article it was reported that some believe that banks may be using ECB funds to buy corporate debt. According to SocGen analyst Suki Mann, investors have been seeking yield, as they are starting to believe that even if there were a default by Greece, such an event could have a muted impact. High-grade yields have declined as some companies are now being seen as safer than governments. In Europe, there was the largest 1-month compression in high-grade debt yields in Jan since records started. - According to a PwC report (entitled 'Precious Plastic'), the average UK household held nearly Â£8,000 in debt last year, placing it as one of the world's most indebted countries. The report found that in 2011 the average family paid off Â£355 in unsecured debt with Â£7.9K left outstanding. For 2012, it sees an additional reduction of Â£400, although at current rate, it will take almost two decades to pay off the entire amount. A PwC official said, "In addition to this, our credit confidence survey has shown that there is a growing reluctance to borrow in the future and a marked deterioration in confidence about meeting repayments, particularly among 18 to 24-year-olds". The squeeze on household finances is set to continue, according to a separate study, with businesses planning to award average pay rises of just 1.1% this year.
***Looking Ahead*** - (PT) Portugal Dec Trade Balance: -â‚¬ v -â‚¬885M prior - (ZA) South Africa Dec Manufacturing Prod. M/M: No est v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prior - 6:00 (PL)) Poland to sell Bonds - 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK9.0B in 6-month Bills - 7:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and increase the Asset Purchase Target (APT) by Â£50B to Â£325B </ >- 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest rate Decision: Expecte to leave the Main 7-day Refi Rate unchanged at 1.00% - 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 370Ke v 367K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.50Me v 3.437M prior - 8:30 (EU) ECB Monthly press conference - 9:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Final Trade Balance: No est v $ prior - 9:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Prices M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.8% prior; Core CPI M/M: No est v 0.5% prior - 9:30 (US) Commercial Paper outstanding w/e Feb 8th: No est v $800M prior - 10:00 (US) Dec Wholesale Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior - 10:00 (UK) Jan NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.1% prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly Natural Gas Inventory data - 12:00 (EU) Eurogroup meeting in Brussels - 12:00 (US) CBO Director Elmendorf - 13:00 (DE) German Bundesbank member Nagel - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 24-Aug WED
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude 25-Aug THU
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI 26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole
Trading Themes --
The market started the week initially marking EUREUSD lower in anticipation of the Yellen speech Friday, where many expect her to take a more hawkish tone. Fed Chair Yellen speaks Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I expect her to send a hopeful message that the economy is strong enough now to withstand a modest step towards a normalization of monetary policy.
Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley recently laid the groundwork for a December rate hike signal. Politically, I feel Yellen would like to avoid making a rate hike this close to a national election. Waiting until December would be easy.
Mixed flash PMI releases from Europe and the U.S. today were disappointing. The Japanese flash PMI improved. On the other hand, new homes sales data were better.
Markets have been starting to reconsider the pervasively negative GBP outlook as some are now saying that the UK economy could flourish once it is out from under the thumb of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp decline of the GBP since Brexit is expected already to have been a significant economic stimulus. According to the latest COT report, the market is already heavily short the GBP. This is not a contra trade you will want to get into its too early. Its one to jump on once the momentum has turned.
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