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Tuesday June 8, 2004 - 15:38:30 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (8 June 2004)



The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2255 level after absorbing bids around the $1.2265 level, its 100-hour moving average. The move lower accelerated after Fed Chairman Greenspan hawkishly said deflation is dead and the FOMC has not ruled out an aggressive monetary tightening. Monetary hawks bought the U.S. dollar following these comments on the notion that the FOMC might orchestrate a 50bps interest rate hike instead of the 25bps that most market participants expect. The markets will see the U.S. May PPI data released at 1900 GMT on Thursday instead of Friday on account of the state funeral of former President Reagan. Italian President Berlusconi verbally intervened today saying “the value of the euro is too high vs. the dollar. We have continuously asked the ECB to review its rates" to combat this trend. If this does not happen, I think we will have to flank the ECB with a political committee formed by representatives of the all (EMU) countries." German “Wise Man” Bofinger yesterday called on the ECB to cut rates immediately. These comments are a decoupling with recent ECB comments that suggest the central bank has adopted a neutral policy stance. Minor data released in the U.S. today saw the Redbook retail sales index for same-store sales in June inch up +0.7% week-on-week. Treasury Secretary Snow today said the U.S. economy “has really turned the corner” and added the economy is in a “strong recovery.” Data released in the eurozone today saw German April industrial output register a 2.2% stronger-than-expected expansion.


¥

The yen lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥110.05 level after testing bids around the ¥109.45 level. The pair moved higher during North American dealing after fairly hawkish remarks from Fed Chairman Greenspan. The big story in Japan today is interest rates as the 10-year JGB yield reached 1.705% overnight, a yield not seen in some 3 ½ years. This coincided with a 0.72% improvement in the Nikkei 225 index that closed at ¥11,531.93. Also, dealers cited less-than-stellar demand for a 5-year JGB auction overnight, an indication that traders believe the Japanese economy is improving nicely. Bank of Japan Policy Board members will likely be on the wires soon to reaffirm the continuity of the central bank’s long-standing quantitative easing policy. Data released in Japan today saw the M2+CD money supply measure expend 2.0% y/y in May while Japanese bank lending came off 4.1% y/y in May, the 77th consecutive monthly decline. Finance minister Tanigaki commented on the rise in JGB yields while FSA’s Takenaka said it reflects an improving economy. The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen today as the single currency tested offers around the ¥135.50 level before moving lower to test bids around the ¥134.55 level. Euro bids are cited around the ¥134.45 level.

£

The British pound weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.8325 level after failing to get above the $1.8460 level overnight. Cable’s descent quickened following the hawkish remarks from Fed Chairman Greenspan today. A mixed batch of U.K. housing reports saw the FT House Price Index increase 0.7% m/m and 17.7% y/y in May, the lowest monthly increase in six months. Halifax issued a similar report today that saw a 2.2% m/m and 20.4% y/y gain in house prices last month. Recent data from Nationwide saw increases of 1.9% m/m and 19.5% y/y. The markets would have reacted to these data a couple of weeks ago by taking cable higher to the US$ 1.8480 level. Many traders did not react to the data on account of the forthcoming interest rate decision by Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday. Some are expecting a 25bps monetary tightening while others see no change in interest rates. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.8295 level. The euro weakened vis-à-vis the British pound today as the single currency tested bids around the £0.6675 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc lost marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2430 level and found bids around the CHF 1.2315 level. The pair’s move higher was limited by a strong depreciation on the euro/Swiss franc cross that saw the single currency test bids around the CHF 1.5180 level. Swiss data released today saw a decline in unemployment in May but many traders believe Swiss National Bank will not tighten monetary policy this month. SNB added one-week liquidity at 0.11% today, the same rate it has used since 2 April 2003.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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