Wednesday June 15, 2005 - 00:15:06 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning ReportNew Zealand Dollar: NZD proves resilient despite USD gains
From opening levels at 0.7053 yesterday, the NZD dipped to intraday lows of 0.7045 before recovering throughout the local session. With little major domestic data to provide direction, the currency tracked the euro higher as the European currency rebounded from nine-month lows registered on Monday. The NZD proved resilient in the offshore session. While the USD shrugged off weaker than anticipated domestic data and again battered Sterling and euro, NZD gains on the crosses held the market above the day's intraday lows. The currency opens this morning at 0.7070.
Australian Dollar: Supported AUD enjoys 14 month high against the euro
After establishing an intraday low of 0.7609 shortly after the open, the AUD improved over the course of the day to close at 0.7635. The NAB Business Survey reported an increase in the business conditions index for May, although this was tempered by a deterioration of near term expectations. While a speech from RBA Governor Macfarlane concentrated largely on external issues, the mention of capacity constraints and rising inflation proved supportive for the currency. The AUD also held up well in the overnight session trading a 0.7638 - 0.7683 range. As European currencies were again marked lower against the USD, AUD/EUR rallied to its best levels since April 2004. The AUD opens this morning at 0.7630.
Major Currencies: USD range trades prior to big data day
The USD stalled briefly on Tuesday after slightly weaker-than expected retail sales data and producer prices for May. These numbers were not significant enough to reverse the previous days USD strength, but instead kept most of the majors in a range against the USD until tonight's host of US data. The euro
partially corrected some of the recent USD strength and traded between 1.2105-1.2155 during NZ time. However euro technical weakness and general USD bullishness drove the euro lower during NY trading reaching a new nine-month low at 1.2022; the market opens at 1.2030 today. The Japanese yen
traded in a 109.25-109.60 range against the USD yesterday during local trading and 109.08-109.50 offshore. Sterling
price action was more volatile, opening at 1.8060 and dipping to 1.8030 before spiking to 1.8105, all during NZ time. Sterling rallied to 1.8157 during NY trading before falling back to the intraday low 1.8030 at the close.
US May retail sales weaker than expected.
The headline number fell 0.5% (core -0.2%), but the April number was revised up (headline up to 1.5% from 1.4% and core 1.4% from 1.1%). The market view seems to be that the April number was boosted by favourable weather conditions, so the May result was simply a reversal. Over the two month period retail sales remain strong.
US May PPI also weak.
The headline number fell 0.6% and the core rose 0.1% (mkt f/c -0.2% and +0.2% respectively). However, with the CPI report out tomorrow, little focus was placed on this report, with the pass through for US producer to consumer prices far from perfect.
UK CPI under control.
The headline CPI was marginally stronger than expected (+0.4% vs mkt f/c of +0.3%) while the RPI number was marginally weaker (+0.2% vs +0.3%). Headline CPI now +1.9%yr. The Bank of England Inflation report forecast CPI inflation would average 2.0% in Q2, then edge slightly above the 2% target in the second half of the year before falling in 2006. So far April/May inflation has averaged 1.9%.
Country Release Last Forecast
Aust Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment 114.3 n/f
US May CPI/Core 0.5%/flat flat/0.2%
Apr Business Inventories 0.4% 0.6%
Jun NY Fed Empire State Survey -11.1 8.0
Apr Net Foreign Security Sales USDbn 45.7 n/f
May Industrial Production -0.2% -0.1%
Jun NAHB Housing Index 70 71
Fed Beige Book
Eur Q1 Labour Costs %yr 2.4% n/f
UK May Unemployment ch 8.1k 2k
Apr Leading Index 0.1% n/f
Latest Research papers/Publication
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (13 June)
NZ Q1 Terms of Trade Review (10 June)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (10 June)
RBNZ June MPS Review (9 June)
Taking stock - the sequel (8 June)
RBNZ Hot Points (7 June)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (7 June)
NZ Agribiz June 2005 (7 June)
Taxation - who pays and how much? (2 June)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Banks website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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