Trade Talk: What's Moving Markets continuous on Forex Forum
Key Items JP- Ind Output, BOJ, GB- CPI, DE- ZEW, Ind Prod, US- Retail Sales, API.
There was not much of a market response to the Greek austerity budget approved by the Parliament late Sunday evening in Athens. The budget is a pre-requisite for Troika aid (EU Commission, IMF and ECB). Greece still needs economic growth to generate revenue to finance its budget.
The next major event is a vote Wednesday by EU FinMins to approve financing for Greece.
Tuesday sees the economic calendar pick up after a slow Monday.
End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? Covert intervention by the BOJ has been confirmed, and more was threatened on Friday.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
No Major Data 13-Dec Tue
09:30 GB- CPI/RPI 14-Dec Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- Crude Oil
18:00 US- FOMC Decision 15-Dec Thu
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless 16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits
No matter what you call it, the ECB announced a "taper" of its asset purchases to EUR 60b per mo from EUR80b starting in April 2017. Even though President Draghi claimed it was not a "taper" but it generated a "taper tantrum" in EURUSD. I warned Thursday would be a volatile day, but it exceeded my expectations.
The calendar is light today. Better than expected U.K. trade data has been a market-mover for the GBP. University of Michigan preliminary Sentiment data for December are due later. A positive "Trump Effect" would not surprise.
We remain confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25bps next Wednesday. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions.
The U.S. Presidential vote recount continues. Odds for a reversal of the Trump victory are slim.
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