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Tuesday February 14, 2012 - 21:39:15 GMT -

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Forex Trade Talk 11:00 GMT 15 February 2012


Forex-Trade Talk

Forex Analysis

   Trade Talk: What's Moving Markets continuous on Forex Forum

  • Key Items  GB- Jobs, EZ- GDP, US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, NAHB, Weekly Crude. 

  • The German ZEW Survey of investment managers was much stronger than forecast. Word was the strength came from optimism based on the current expansive ECB policies. 

  • Markets are still digesting the surprise Moodys downgrades of Spain, Portugal and Italy with a negative outlook.  It also placed AAA-rated France, U.K. and  Austria on a negative outlook.

  • The Bank of Japan also surprised the markets by increasing its monetary ease *additional liquidity) and setting a target for Japanese CPI of 1.0%.It appears that global monetary ease is being coordinated between the major central banks.

  • It appeared Tuesday that another Greek deadline was not going to be met as EU Finance Ministers were sending signals that they would not vote on approving an aid package for Greece. It may be that the package will not be addressed until the March 1 EU Leaders Summit. EU leaders want to hold Greece accountable after aid has been approved. 

  • End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? Covert intervention by the BOJ has been confirmed, and more was threatened on Friday.

Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 10:43
EUR 1.3202 7 JPY 102.96 62 JPY 122.88 58
GBP 1.5756 -13 GBP 83.79 11 CHF 144.14 -28
CHF 0.9148 -10 CHF 1.2077 -7 CHF vs.    
JPY 77.99 43       JPY 85.25 56

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge


Commodity         10:43
CAD 0.9984 -6 AUD 1.0713 -20 Gold 1721 -1.42
CNY 6.2998 26 NZD 0.8327 -13 WTI 101.61 0.96


Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 


Equities           10:43
NIK 9052 53 DAX 6774 36 DJIA 12874 0
HSI 20918 30 FTSE 5915 9 S&P 1352 0
SSEC 2345 -8 SMI 6178 0 NAS 2931 0
ASX 4243 -42       TSE 12394 0

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.

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Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
29 Mar Wed
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude
30 Mar Thu
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- GDP
23:30 JP- CPI
31 Mar Fri
7:55 DE- Jobless
8:30 GB- GDP
9:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
14:00 US- final Univ of Mich
2 Apr Sun
00:00 AU/NZ- Clocks "Fall Back"

Forex Trading Outlook

Forex Market: items driving the forex market:
  • Event Risk: Solid U.S. data have helped stabilize the USD today. It appears now that unless the Trump Administration can get its legislative act together that the Fed will be forced pursue a cautious policy tightening posture, as opposed to an aggressive one.

  • Event Risk: Article 50 was signed late Tuesday UK hours by PM May. It will be presented to the EU today at 13:30 CET to the EU. (11:30 GMT).

  • As expected, a request to the U.K. Parliament for a second Scotland Independence referendum was approved by the Scottish Parliament Tuesday. Odds are the request will not be considered immediately.

  • There is a growing perception that the ECB might start to consider stepping back from excessive policy ease. Watch flash HICP data Friday. The March German Ifo Survey (Monday) was considerably stronger than expected and will be noted by the ECB.

  • Lots to consider. Please comment...

    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner,

    EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

    EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated


    Bank Of China Actions To Stabilize the Yuan Weigh on the USD

    Diary of My Forex Day



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