The German ZEW Survey of investment managers was much stronger than forecast. Word was the strength came from optimism based on the current expansive ECB policies.
Markets are still digesting the surprise Moodys downgrades of Spain, Portugal and Italy with a negative outlook. It also placed AAA-rated France, U.K. and Austria on a negative outlook.
The Bank of Japan also surprised the markets by increasing its monetary ease *additional liquidity) and setting a target for Japanese CPI of 1.0%.It appears that global monetary ease is being coordinated between the major central banks.
It appeared Tuesday that another Greek deadline was not going to be met as EU Finance Ministers were sending signals that they would not vote on approving an aid package for Greece. It may be that the package will not be addressed until the March 1 EU Leaders Summit. EU leaders want to hold Greece accountable after aid has been approved.
End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? Covert intervention by the BOJ has been confirmed, and more was threatened on Friday.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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Markets were blindsided early in U.S. trade Tuesday (turnaround Tuesday?) by a relentless move higher in the USD following a weak performance earlier in the day. It was an odd performance in that there was no clear impetus for the trade. All I can say is that it appears that some players, perhaps for reasons other than economic, continue to push the currency in one direction. This could be for political or safety reasons. It could also be an effort to run stops by algos. I don't know, but note the currency recently has not been reacting the way it "should" to economic data.
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised some with a 25bp cut in the Cash Rate target to 1.75% from 2.00%. Many had felt the odds for a cut had been 50-50. The decision initially saw a major drop in the AUDUSD. The decision came on the heels of soft inflation figures for 1Q16. The RBA warned about the risks in the future of a rising currency.
Early Tuesday saw the April Chinese Caixin PMI, which remained in contraction at 49.4 vs. 49.7 in March. The rest of the week will see holidays in Japan due to "Golden Week" observances, plus a few holiday closures elsewhere. Then Friday will feature the latest key employment data (April) from the U.S. and Canada
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