The German ZEW Survey of investment managers was much stronger than forecast. Word was the strength came from optimism based on the current expansive ECB policies.
Markets are still digesting the surprise Moodys downgrades of Spain, Portugal and Italy with a negative outlook. It also placed AAA-rated France, U.K. and Austria on a negative outlook.
The Bank of Japan also surprised the markets by increasing its monetary ease *additional liquidity) and setting a target for Japanese CPI of 1.0%.It appears that global monetary ease is being coordinated between the major central banks.
It appeared Tuesday that another Greek deadline was not going to be met as EU Finance Ministers were sending signals that they would not vote on approving an aid package for Greece. It may be that the package will not be addressed until the March 1 EU Leaders Summit. EU leaders want to hold Greece accountable after aid has been approved.
End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? Covert intervention by the BOJ has been confirmed, and more was threatened on Friday.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 5-Dec Mon
All Day- final Service PMIs 6-Dec Tue
04:30 AU- RBA Policy Decision
10:00 EZ- GDP
13:30 US- Productivity 7-Dec Wed
00:30 AU- GDP
15:00 CA- BOC Policy Decision
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23:50 JP- GDP 8-Dec Thu
02:00 CN- Trade
12:45 EZ- ECB Policy Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless 9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
As expected, PM Renzi's Constitutional Referendum in Italy was defeated Sunday. The vote was a resounding "NO" and has seen the Prime Minister tender his resignation. An interim caretaker government will be installed while the political situation is sorted out. The EURUSD fell all the way down to just above 1.0500 before stabilizing and major short-covering setting in. No doubt there has been covert intervention underway by European National Banks, or other agencies.
The U.S. November employment data on Friday was a mixed bag. The 178K increase in Jobs was in line with street estimates, but was nothing to write home about. The surprising fall in the unemployment rate to 4.60% from 4.90% was due mainly to another decline in the Labor Participation Rate and the -0.1% fall in Average Hourly Earnings was a big disappointment.
I see no chance the data will change Fed intentions to raise rates on December 14. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions. Markets are running 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase.
The U.S. Presidential vote recount is an ongoing uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with Clinton help, is supporting recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Odds in favor a reversal of the Trump victory are very slim.
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