The German ZEW Survey of investment managers was much stronger than forecast. Word was the strength came from optimism based on the current expansive ECB policies.
Markets are still digesting the surprise Moodys downgrades of Spain, Portugal and Italy with a negative outlook. It also placed AAA-rated France, U.K. and Austria on a negative outlook.
The Bank of Japan also surprised the markets by increasing its monetary ease *additional liquidity) and setting a target for Japanese CPI of 1.0%.It appears that global monetary ease is being coordinated between the major central banks.
It appeared Tuesday that another Greek deadline was not going to be met as EU Finance Ministers were sending signals that they would not vote on approving an aid package for Greece. It may be that the package will not be addressed until the March 1 EU Leaders Summit. EU leaders want to hold Greece accountable after aid has been approved.
End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? Covert intervention by the BOJ has been confirmed, and more was threatened on Friday.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 30-MAY MONDAY
00:00 GB/US- Holiday 31-MAY TUESDAY
07:55 DE- Employment
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
13:45 US- Chicago PMI
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence 1-JUNE WEDNESDAY
00:30 AU- GDP
all day Global PMIs
18:00 US- Beige Book 2-JUNE THURSDAY
11:45 EZ- ECB
12:15 US- ADP
12:30 US Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude 3-JUNE FRIDAY
all Day Global PMIs
12:30 US- Employment
Trading Themes --
For once Fed Chair Yellen did not disappoint the markets. On Friday she said that a rate
hike in "coming months" probably would be appropriate. I take "coming months" to mean June or July. Her statement gives her room to delay a hike should "Brexit" become an issue. Her comments came after many traders had given up hope for a policy statement.
The EURUSD has tested the psychological 1.1200 line early Friday, but then traded sharply lower close to the 1.1100 level after chair Yellen signalled a rate hike possibly as early as on June 15. There has been no doubt recently that the Fed wants to raise rates soon. Doubts only have been about timing.
Both Japanese National and Core CPI remain in contraction (-0.3% y/y) as of April. The latest data keep the pressure on the BOJ to take actions to lift the economy out of its persistent deflation.
John M.Bland MBA co-founder global-View.com
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