The German ZEW Survey of investment managers was much stronger than forecast. Word was the strength came from optimism based on the current expansive ECB policies.
Markets are still digesting the surprise Moodys downgrades of Spain, Portugal and Italy with a negative outlook. It also placed AAA-rated France, U.K. and Austria on a negative outlook.
The Bank of Japan also surprised the markets by increasing its monetary ease *additional liquidity) and setting a target for Japanese CPI of 1.0%.It appears that global monetary ease is being coordinated between the major central banks.
It appeared Tuesday that another Greek deadline was not going to be met as EU Finance Ministers were sending signals that they would not vote on approving an aid package for Greece. It may be that the package will not be addressed until the March 1 EU Leaders Summit. EU leaders want to hold Greece accountable after aid has been approved.
End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? Covert intervention by the BOJ has been confirmed, and more was threatened on Friday.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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08:00 DE- IFO Survey
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI 26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole Trading Themes --
The closely followed German IFO business sentiment survey for August missed street estimates by a wide margin and could bode poorly for the economy in the near future.
Anticipation of the Yellen speech Friday, where many expect a more hawkish tone, continues to hang over the markets. Fed Chair Yellen speaks Friday morning (14:00 GMT) at the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I expect a message that the economy is strong enough to withstand a modest step towards a normalization of policy.
Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley have laid the groundwork for a December rate hike. Make no mistake, this is a political decision. Waiting for the December meeting is the easiest path.
Markets feel now the UK economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus. The market is heavily short the GBP according to COT data.
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