FX Thoughts for the day : 17-Feb-2012

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Friday February 17, 2012 - 12:07:03 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the day : 17-Feb-2012 - 1204 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
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USD-CHF @ 0.9189/92...Ranged
R: 0.9200-10 / 0.9250 / 0.9300
S: 0.9170 / 0.9120-00 / 0.9060

Dollar-Swiss remains ranged between its Resistance at 0.9210 on the upside and Support at 0.9170 on the downside. We will have to wait for a breakout on either side of this 0.9170-9210. Our view remains the same and while below 0.9210 the pair is expected to remain pressured on the downside and a test of 0.9120-00 is possible on a break below 0.9170

Holding:
USD 10K Short at 0.9250, TSL 0.9215 (down from 0.9230), TP 0.9065
As soon as the market trades 0.9170 bring TSL down to 0.9205 and as soon as the market trades 0.9155 there after bring TSL further down to 0.9185

GBP-USD @ 1.5834/37...Can revisit the 200-DMA Resistance
R: 1.5850 / 1.5900-20
S: 1.5800 / 1.5750

Cable is continuing to trade higher above 1.5800 and remains bullish. As we had mentioned in the morning, we expect a revisit of the 200-DMA Resistance (1.5913). With Supports at 1.5750, then in 1.5700-5680, there is no immediate threat on the downside. What happens to the 200-DMA Resistance will be key to be watched now and it will decide the further direction of move.

AUD-USD @ 1.0755/58...Ranged with bullish bias
R: 1.0780-800 / 1.0900
S: 1.0750 / 1.0700 / 1.0668

Aussie is trading silent in between 1.0750-0800. With no significant move seen on either side during the day, our view remains the same. Some Resistance is seen in 1.0770-800 region which needs to be broken now to wipe out the downside pressure. The broader picture is bullish and while the pair continues to trade above the 21-DMA (1.0668) Support, there is not immediate threat on the downside. 1.0900 can be targeted now on the upside.

Happy Trading!

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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
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Trading Themes--

The media spent all day Tuesday rehashing the first Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. In general, the mainstream press gave Clinton an edge. Most felt it was not a knock-out blow. As far as I could observe, it had no impact on the markets.

The Conference Board Survey, which tends to be closely followed, surged in september to a seven year high, while other second-tier data did not move the needle much. There is lot more of data due over the week, but none is are likely to be decisive.

On Monday, the September German Ifo Survey was considerably stronger than expected. ECB President Draghi testimony to the European Parliament revealed nothing new. He appeared resigned to an extended period of slow growth in the Eurozone.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk On

Latest News On U.S. Presidential Election -- Realclearpolitics.com

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Friday February 17, 2012 - 12:07:03 GMT FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com