Trade Talk: What's Moving Markets continuous on Forex Forum
Key Items: US- Weekly Jobs, Weekly Energy, 7-yr.
The big question remains whether we can start to move beyond Greece headlines. It seems that some traders are starting to nibble at log EURUSD positions or are reducing their shorts.
Today has seen a better than Forecast German IFO survey. Be careful about extrapolating German data to the rest of Europe. There is no doubt that the EZ is a two-speed economy.
As for Greece we are skeptical that there has been a permanent fix made for distressed Greek finances. A key question for the not too distant future is how Greek society will deal with another round of tough austerity.
The USDJPY is holding above the psychological 80.00 line. This is likely on the back of covert BOJ intervention. JPY repatriation flows are often common heading into the March 30 fiscal year end.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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08:00 DE- IFO Survey 26-Jul TUE
00:30 AU- CPI
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
14:00 US- CB Confidence
14:00 US- New Homes Sales 27-Jul WED
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US= Durable Goods
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision & Presser 28-Jul THU
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI 29-Jul FRI
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
09:00 EZ- GDP, flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of Mich
Trading Themes --
The closely-watched special post-Brexit U.K. flash PMIs were very weak, but mixed against market expectations. Eurozone PMIs were mixed. The U.S. sees a flash MFG PMI later today.
Markets continue to react badly to the month-old BBC radio documentary of BOJ Governor Kuroda. In the interview, he threw cold water on the idea of "helicopter money". The Nikkei closed down 231 points on the day.
Furthermore, traders were reacting to in-depth analyses of PM Abe's major stimulus program, which is proving not to be as large as the headlines are suggesting.
ECB President Draghi was decidedly less dovish than expected on Thursday. In essence, he said that future monetary policy decisions would be dependant on future economic developments.
The Republican Party convention wound up Thursday evening with Trump's nomination acceptance speech. The Democrats meet next week.
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