Thursday June 16, 2005 - 15:04:12 GMT
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GVI Professional Dealer Forex Survey and Analysis
In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar improved against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2006 from 1.2112 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (June 14 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2033.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) turned neutral the EURUSD after the recent changes in the spot rate to 53 from 32 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast improved to 108.84 from 107.86 two weeks earlier. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 109.42. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index became less neutral the dollar from two weeks earlier. It was 43 after 40.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to fall to a mean $54.03 in three months from the current spot vs. the previous $50.94 estimate.
In a tracking question, participants were asked again where they expect the dollar to end 2005. This same question was last asked on January 12. On that date, the EUR/USD and USD/JPY were trading at 1.3120 and 103.30, respectively. The newest yearend forecasts (previous) are 1.1668 (1.2996) and 109.98 (103.45).
For complete survey results see:
Click to View
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EURUSD 3 months:
(1st day close 1.2033, av. responses 1.2006, Adjusted boundaries 1.16-1.24).
GVI:53% (32%) [3mSMA 45%]. COMPONENTS:19%, 58%, 23% (53%, 29%,18%) [3mSMA 32%, 47%, 21%].
EUR slightly bullish in absolute and bullish in relative terms. Among components @30% turned neutral from bearish, fully reversing the previous move. Strong bullish increased 5%. The bulk of those who see EUR lower is about equal to the last time, i.e. in the zone between 1.16 to 1.19 with a 1.1770 weighted average, incidentally a popular technical target. The main difference is that last time the first day spot close was @1.23, and now was @1.20 Last time the average of responses was @200 pips under that spot (very rare), while now that average is @1.20 very close as usual to the 1st day spot close.
My reading is that about all are hoping for a EUR rebound to short what they missed. Perhaps some were estimating a poor risk reward in the 1.20 zone.
In the meantime, updated data about margin specs positions show that they aren’t overly short, differently from COT reports. I insist in my opinion that since mid-May long term traders are heavily in the market.
As regards the option market, since the last survey implied vols went slightly higher, RR 1m moved from –0.40 to –0.60, a level seen only during March 2001. Anyway the growing interest in low-premia structures (RKO, DKO) is consistent with the Survey.
USD JPY 3 months:
(1st day close 109.42, av. responses 108.89, Adjusted boundaries 105-113)
GVI:46%(47%) [3mSMA 42%]. COMPONENTS:16%, 76%, 8% (13%, 80%, 7%) [3mSMA24%68%8%]. Unchanged.
Comparing positions, while COT data show JPY net specs positions very short, I have to repeat what I said last time, i.e. that the margin specs reading is similar to the GVI Survey, and personally I would stay on that view. Since last Survey RR 1m moved from –0.55 (USD calls over puts) to –0.40. Volatilities in the meantime are roughly unchanged.
OIL 3 months:
(1st day close 55.00, av. responses 54.03, Adjusted boundaries 48-62)
45%(46%) [3mSMA 45%] COMPONENTS: 20%, 71%, 9%(14%, 81% 5%) [3mSMA19%, 73%, 8%].
Roughly unchanged. Note that spot is @3 cents higher than the previous time.
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