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Wednesday June 9, 2004 - 12:11:16 GMT -

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The Euro's first attempt to trade above key Fib level thwarted

Daily Forex Technical Report 6-9-2004

The Euro's first attempt to trade above key Fib level thwarted
GBP closes rapidly on MACD histogram cross under

The EUR/USD made a brief foray above the 1.2340/45 level only to be sold off dramatically for the remainder of the N. American session into Asia trading. The pair crashed through local support at 1.2280 where it found a base momentarily only to continue selling further still; now trading just above the macro trend regression center line at 1.2200/10. Notably, however, oscillators on the 240-minute interval have moved swiftly out of overbought near oversold lending us to believe that upside inertia of the macro scope may take over near these levels, perhaps close to the regression trend centerline and Fib retracement of 1.2730-1.1755 (1.2200). On the upside, 1.2340/45 will remain a very key resistance level with the regression upper channel (1.2385/2400) and 1.2500 providing solid resistance thereafter. Take notice of key reversal candlestick formations (morning star/doji, doji, double doji and bullish engulfing) on intermediate to short time frames (240-15 minute) if the price moves below key levels noted above. USD/JPY continues to trade near pivotal levels (50% retracement 106.10-115.00) with a slight downward bias. A break below current levels should be supported solidly by the intersection of the lower regression channel line and the 62.8% retracement of 106.10-115.00 (107.80/108.00). Additionally, a confluence of the standard set (100 and 200-day simple and weighted) of moving averages comes to fruition just above (108.70/90) the key levels noted above and should further congest things on the downside. On the bid side we have the 38.2 retracement of 106.10-115.00 coming into play at 110.55 and regression channel (beginning mid February) centerline at 111.50/70 which is climbing at nearly 50 degrees. Oscillators still favor oversold conditions but have yet to drift up, as we would like to see when prices are due to rise. As MACD convergence bears down, the GBP/USD 4 and 8-day moving averages respectively indicate a reversal of trend is growing imminent. Unlike other dollar pairs, which have come off respective resistance/support lines a bit, sterling continues to "hang" trading near resistance (1.8450). The 61.8% retracement of 1.9135 (11 year high against the dollar) - 1.7475 comes into play at 1.8500, contributing to the resistance eyed above. According to our own proprietary pivot calculations support is eyed near 1.8315 and Fibonacci studies by and large conquer (50% retracement of 1.9135-1.7475 at 1.8305). Signs of a reversal have appeared on the USD/CHF daily charts. Several "bottom like" candlestick formations have appeared just as the 76.4 % retracement of 1.2144-1.3230 ropes the price in from a brief foray below while simultaneously registering an oversold condition on various oscillators. Resistance is eyed just below the trend regression centerline 1.2490/1.2500 with more significant levels near the 61.8% retracement of 1.2144-1.3230 at 1.2560.


Comment from 05/17
On 04/20 GBPJPY had a high at 196.74 (above our 195.80/96.30 area) and retraced to the 192.42 Low a couple of days later, 432pts lower. The cross then broke the 198 level (5/07). A typical breakout retracement occurred (low at 197.87 on 05/12) and then the pair rallied. The outlook is now clearly positive since 207.50/208.20 is the only serious R ahead. Aggressive bears might try to exploit the High BB at 203.00/50 but 207.50/208.20 and the current swing high is the only robust R. Below, bulls will concentrate on 197.00/40 (20 EMA and robust Fibo confluence (38.2% Fibo from the Sep - Mar Bull wave & 38.2% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bull wave). Bulls will also keep in mind the 189.20/80 zone thanks to the Low BB and 61.8% Fibo from the Sep - Mar bull wave.

On 05/18 GBPJPY had a high at 202.94 (slightly below our 203.00/50 area) and found the 199.46 Low on 05/21 (348pts lower) shortly afterwards. The outlook is once again positive for the cross. A clear bullish channel is actually visible. Bulls will then step in at 199.30/80 in order to exploit the ST Trend S, Low BB and 76.4% Fibo from the Nov 01 - 04 bull wave. Below, bulls will also watch the 197.00/50 area thanks to the 100 and 50 SMA, former breakout pt now S and 76.4% Fibo from the 01 - 04 bull wave. Above, aggressive bears might pick the 205.80/206.40 area in order to exploit the intermediate swing high, High BB and 61.8% Fibo from the 98 - 00 bear wave. However, the key test for the Sterling will be 207.50/208, the March Swing High.


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