Trade Talk: What's Moving Markets continuous on Forex Forum
Key Items: Far East: JP- Tertiary Activity Index. Europe: No Major Data. North America: No Major Data
Our Forex trading theme for the new week is Europe with the Greek election next Sunday, June 17. Final permissible polls about a week ago suggested that a government that supports the bailout (pro-Euro) will prevail, so the surprise would be an outcome where the deal is rejected.
This could be a headline-driven week. Expect the markets to start to set up for the vote (defensively) as early as Monday. Spanish bank bailout discussions apparently made major positive strides over the weekend.
On Wednesday, the EU will hold a summit on economic growth, which is a step in the right direction, but they need to go beyond talking.
FRB Vice Chair Yellen took a dovish monetary policy posture last Wednesday, although Fed Chairman Bernanke was non-committal ahead of the FOMC decision on June 20. Of course he cannot pre-commit for the FOMC which will still have to vote on that date
The EURUSD remains in a major downtrend, although the key EURUSD 20-day average is 1.2584. The 10-yr bund is 1.33%, -5 bp Key European bourses were mixed. The U.S.10-yr was 1.57%, -1 bp.
Key Asian bourses closed mostly lower. The 10-yr JGB is 0.86%, -2 bp. The key USDJPY 20-day average is 79.32. EURJPY 20-day average is 99.84.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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