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Friday June 24, 2005 - 10:59:08 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
EUR-USD bounces back after dipping below 1.20.

JPY gives up recent strength.

Canadian CPI, US durable orders and Trichet feature today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD bounced back in Europe this morning, after having briefly touched 1.1982 in Asia. The recovery may extend further today (1.2140) if the 1.2070-90 area can be overcome, although a retest of the important 1.1950-85 area (series of lows from June and August last year) should be seen early next week. Still, there is a good chance of this holding ahead of US ISM and employment reports as the current consolidation period continues. If 1.1950 were to break there would be scope to the major 1.1759 low from April last year. Todays US durable orders release could generate some movement and Trichet is also due to speak on Monetary Policy in EMU: Views and Challenges. He is likely to use the occasion to reiterate his satisfaction with the current level of interest rates. However, he will need to make a fairly vigorous defence if market suspicions about rate cuts are to be allayed.

The JPY has enjoyed periods of strength over recent days, although this appears to have been partly related to sporadic speculation regarding a CNY adjustment, motivated primarily by the appearances of Greenspan and Snow in Congress. However, there is no significance in these appearances and the JPY has faded overnight (high oil prices are also not helping).\ However, overall the JPY should retain some reasonable support if the recent run of generally solid economic data can be maintained. The Tankan, industrial output, CPI and labour market data are all due next week.

EUR-SEK continues to enjoy life above the major 9.31-9.33 area and having moved with some ease above minor resistance at 9.39, there is little on the chart until 9.60. The big figure at 9.50 should cap it for now and a move close to this level should be seen today or Monday.
0 EDT Wednesday June 8 2005

Day Ahead
Canada CPI has been relatively stable for some time and not a market-moving factor. Given the strength in other economic data over recent times, a soft CPI number today would be largely ignored, but any unexpected strength in the core measure would heighten perceptions that the BoC may restart the tightening process sooner than previously thought. In terms of event bias for the CAD, it would appear to be skewed to the upside. The CAD has struggled this morning amidst talk of a squeeze in short EUR-CAD positions, but below 1.2275 on USD-CAD would open the way for a move to 1.2000-50.

US - Recent durable orders reports have been neither strong nor particularly weak. The core measures have become a little mixed over the past few months, but have yet to really reverse any of the strength seen in Q4. Activity just appears to have flattened out a little over the past couple of months and periods such as these are not uncommon in this data series. Unfilled orders ex-transport also remains firmly in an uptrend.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

DE CPI states (Jun, prel) m/m from today +0.2%
CA CPI (May) y/y 07.00 +1.8%
CA CPIX (May) y/y 07.00 +1.7%
EU ECBs Trichet speaks on policy 08.00
US Durable orders (May) m/m 08.30 +1.5%
US Durables ex-transport (May) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US New home sales (May) 10.00 1320k

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ GDP (Q1) q/q +0.6% +0.8%
JP CSPI (May) y/y -0.5% -0.4%
NO Unemployment rate (Apr, sa) 4.6% 4.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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