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Tuesday April 27, 2004 - 23:41:15 GMT
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Forecast on Majors for 28th April 2004

General Market Conditions

Some divergent performances for the Dollar yesterday with unexpected strength against the Japanese Yen but a fair deal of weakness against the Europeans. The break of 1.3040 against the Swissie and the retest , and marginal breach, of 1.1943 keeps the Dollar on the defensive against the Europeans and we look for further losses to occur within the boundaries of a medium term correction. The fact that this contradicts the structure in the Japanese Yen is a slight concern and therefore we are cautious about a bullish view, but find this the more attractive structure to follow.


USDJPY
Price: 109.40

Day View
Resistance: 109.85 ... 110.30 ... 110.55 ... 110.90
Support....: 109.25 ... 109.05 ... 108.90 ... 108.65

Bias: Cautiously higher

Bullish: We were quite surprised by the strong reaction higher here yesterday and this strength does appear to give price here a more bullish outlook. However, we should also be aware of a slightly extended sideways consolidation before the strength can materialize. To see a direct break higher we need to see support at 108.90-109.05 hold and for a break back above109.85 which would then allow gains to continue towards 110.30 and probably much higher to 1110.10 and 111.55.

Bearish: Failure to make new lows yesterday caused the decline to be corrective and does place a more bullish outlook on the Dollar here. However, there is risk of seeing a pullback and this may just last a further day or so. First support is at 108.95-109.05 and we feel this should be tested at a minimum. Further support lies at 108.65 and only below here would cause a further pullback towards 108.30 again. Further support at 107.40.



Week View
Resistance: 110.45 ... 111.55 ... 112.15 ... 113.40
Support....: 108.30 ... 107.40 ... 106.70 ... 105.80

The reversal from 108.30 allowed a break back above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which brings back some positive sentiment to the price structure here. Schaff Trend Cycle has recovered and is close to 100 while FXS-RSI has moved higher into neutral territory. While not confirmed until we break above the 109.85-110.25-45 area, the structure does appear to look more positive. However, we do suggest waiting for this break else a move back to 106.70-107.20 is possible.

Bullish: The unexpected recovery yesterday does bring a certain bullish feel to price here but we have only seen a three-wave (corrective) move higher thus far. Therefore any bullish stance should ideally wait for a break of the 109.85-110.25-45 area before considering follow-through to 111.55 and possibly as high as 112.15.

Bearish: Failure to break down to lower levels yesterday was somewhat of a surprise but until 110.25-45 is broken we feel that the downside has not been erased completely. Thus should price break down below 108.65 then the odds would then favor the losses continuing towards the strong 106.70-107.20 support zone.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.


EURUSD
Price: 1.1930

Day View
Resistance: 1.1955 ... 1.1975 ... 1.2005 ... 1.2035
Support....: 1.1905 ... 1.1895 ... 1.1855 ... 1.1830

Bias: Cautiously higher towards 1.2035-45

Bullish: The recovery yesterday was a little surprising and with the test and marginal breach of 1.1943 we see the risk of follow-through today. Thus while price remains above 1.1895-1.1905 we look for gains to resume above 1.1955 and onto 1.2005 at a minimum and we prefer a target around 1.2035-45. Care as a pullback may occur at this point.

Bearish: Failure to extend losses yesterday and then develop into a retest of 1.1943 does not really support a bearish view. However, we do feel that an initial move down towards 1.1895-1.1905 is quite possible but only a clean break below here would extend losses down to 1.1855 and possibly 1.1830 again.



Week View
Resistance: 1.1940 ... 1.2035 ... 1.2160 ... 1.2220
Support....: 1.1855 ... 1.1725 ... 1.1645 ... 1.1520

The recovery caused price to break back above 4-hour Pivot Cloud and does appear to give a more bullish tone to price. Schaff TC1 has risen to 100 while FXS-RSI has moved into overbought territory but shows no sign of reversal. The 1.1725 - 1.1940 range is crucial to the next larger move and break will generate the sentiment for the coming month. It certainly looks as if we shall see a move higher now.

Bullish: The recovery from 1.1775 threatened the 1.1940 resistance on Friday and while there has been a new low at 1.1758 there has been no confirmation of the downside yet. Still, break at 1.1950 is required to generate a correction to the entire downside from 1.2927. Any further gains now would imply follow through to 1.2035 and probably back to 1.2160. Further resistance is at 1.2220-40.

Bearish: With a further test of the 1.1940-45 area the structure appears to be failing the downside view. However, the only chance we see of further losses would be if yesterday's high at 1.1947 holds and we see loss of 1.1855 which we feel would then favor a retest of 1.1758 and breach here would allow losses to resume towards 1.1645 and probably 1.1510-30.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.



USDCHF
Price: 1.2980

Day View
Resistance: 1.3005 ... 1.3015 ... 1.3030 ... 1.3055
Support....: 1.2955 ... 1.2930 ... 1.2915 ... 1.2895

Bias: Cautiously lower to 1.2895 - possibly as far as 1.2860

Bullish: The pullback from the important 1.3040 did not last for as long as expected and break of that support gives a bearish feel to price here. The only way we could revert to a more bullish stance would be to see a break back above 1.3005-15. If seen this would allow follow-through back to 1.3055-60 but this may form a cap.

Bearish: The break below 1.3040 yesterday gives a more bearish feel to the structure here and we feel that the 1.3005-15 resistance should hold today and generate follow-through down to 1.2915 at least (max 1.2895) where a pullback should once again occur. However while this remains below 1.2955-60 we look for a further drop to the 1.2860-70 area. Care here as this could once again allow a pullback.



Week View
Resistance: 1.3055 ... 1.3225 ... 1.3270 ... 1.3485
Support....: 1.2870 ... 1.2790 ... 1.2710 ... 1.2595

The correction yesterday held below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud to see further losses down to the 1.2955 support. Schaff Trend Cycle is now at zero while FXS-RSI has dipped into oversold territory. Having seen this break lower we are bearish to the 1.2710-30 area once again and this should occur over the next 5-7 days.

Bullish: Loss of 1.3040 negates the shorter term bullish scenario. We can only revert to a picture of strength should price reverse back above the 1.3040-60 area, an event that would once again move to retest the 1.3225 high. Only above this high would cause follow-through to 1.3270 and probably as high as 1.3485.

Bearish: Loss of 1.3040 yesterday allowed losses to continue to the next support at 1.2955 and we feel this will give way today to see the downmove continue towards 1.2915 and then 1.2860-70 where a pullback may occur. However, while price reactions remain below 1.3040-60 we continue to see more chance of a move back to test the 1.2710-30 area. However, this does have potential to form a strategic low.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.



GBPUSD
Price: 1.7910

Day View
Resistance: 1.7950 ... 1.7975 ... 1.8010 ... 1.8045
Support....: 1.7900 ... 1.7875 ... 1.7845 ... 1.7815

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: As expected we saw a move towards the favored 1.7950 target although it fell marginally short. We are mixed at this stage and are uncertain of whether yesterday's high completed the short term move higher. Further gains are only possible should 1.7875-00 hold and a move back above 1.7940-50 is seen. Break at 1.7950 would allow follow-through to 1.7975 and maximum 1.8010.

Bearish: Having seen a move to just below the 1.7950 target it is possible that we have seen a short term high. However, this will only be confirmed on a move below 1.7875 and then 1.7845 which would then allow a move to 1.7815. If seen this would probably be the most we should see on the downside today.



Week View
Resistance: 1.7950 ... 1.8045 ... 1.8115 ... 1.8145
Support....: 1.7815 ... 1.7750 ... 1.7700 ... 1.7625

Marginal new gains were seen above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud that reached just short of the 1.7950 target. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at at 100 while FXS-RSI has been erratic around the overbought line and displays a minor bearish divergence. We are cautious but there does appear to be room for a move towards 1.7975-1.8010.

Bullish: We have seen a test of 1.7950 and while we have a bias towards a higher Pound we are uncertain of whether this will be seen directly. We need a break above 1.7975-1.8010 to generate stronger follow-through higher and if seen would then signal gains towards 1.8115-45 and possibly 1.8220.

Bearish: Yesterday saw test of the 1.7950 initial target and could provide a short term cap. A break below 1.7875 could allow a drift down to 1.7815 but we are cautious about expecting anything further. Thus only below 1.7800-15 would cause losses back to retest the 1.7624-45 lows. Only below there would trigger follow-through to 1.7445.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.


Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy SchaffCharts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.

 

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