Trade Talk: What's Moving Markets continuous on Forex Forum
Key Items: US- Durable, Pending Homes Sales, 5-yr.
The FX Trading Theme of the week has been the EU Leaders Summit on Thu and Fri. It dominated trade on Tuesday.
Expectations for the meeting were diminished after German Chancellor Merkel said there would be no shared European liability for debt as long as she lives. Shared European debt is key to a viable agreement.
During the NY afternoon, second-tier ratings agency Egan-Jones downgraded Germany to A+ from AA- with a Negative Outlook due to the ongoing conflict between Chancellor Merkel and the EU leadership.
Pro-growth strategies for deficit countries will be required for them to climb out of their fiscal problems. Decisions take place very slowly in Europe.
The key EURUSD 20-day average is 1.2531. The 10-yr bund is 1.50%, +5 bp Key European bourses ended mixed. The U.S.10-yr is 1.62%, +1 bp.
Key Asian bourses closed mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.82%, -1 bp. The key USDJPY 20-day average is 79.23. EURJPY 20-day average is 99.29.
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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