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Monday June 27, 2005 - 01:06:12 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: NZD tumbles on more soft data Europe gains on technical trading
NZD/USD traded sideways following the open of Friday's local session ahead of the much anticipated Q1 GDP number. The NZD was under pressure immediately as the GDP data came in below expectation; rising 0.6% for the quarter against market expectation of 0.8%. The currency fell to an intraday low of 0.7031 and then slowly recovered to close the local session around 0.7060. The offshore session provided yet more volatility as the NZD surged through 0.7100 initially on a weaker USD. However stops were triggered on the NZD around this level and it eventually posted a high of 0.7123. Sellers of NZD/USD soon emerged and pushed the currency back below 0.7100 and it again tested support at 0.7030. It opens around 0.7050 this morning.

Australian Dollar: AUD has a dull day
The AUD opened around 0.7720 on Friday morning and softened slightly after the open. AUD/USD was then sold through 0.7700 on the back of the weaker than expected NZ GDP data. Stops triggered around 0.7695 then took the currency to a low of 0.7690. The AUD spent the remainder of the day range trading with no further data to provide direction. Trading overnight saw the currency dragged up on technical selling of the greenback where it posted an intraday high of 0.7745. AUD selling saw the currency push lower aided by stops on the way down. The currency opens around 0.7686 this morning.\ in oil prices. Oil particularly affects JPY as Japan imports the majority of its energy needs.

Major Currencies: Europe gains on technical trading
The dollar slipped against major European currencies on Friday, largely due to technical trading factors. After consolidating around 1.2020 the euro was sent into free-fall to 1.1981, which proved to be the next level of support, and equally fast the euro bounced back to around 1.2030. From there it pushed higher, touching a high of 1.2107. Sterling followed the euro during its push higher, ending up 0.5% at 1.8248. Elsewhere JPY slipped to 109.30, the main reason seen as record highs

US durable orders surge 5.5% in May. This reflected a 165% surge in civilian aircraft orders. But excluding transport, orders fell slightly, and core capital goods orders were down 2.3%, their third decline in four months. Elsewhere in the detail, the only strength was a 14% bounce in defence after a 17% April fall. Everything else was close to flat or down. That is consistent with the slower business surveys of late, and points to sluggish business investment.

US new home sales rose 2.1% in May, but recent history was once again revised down, such that the annualised pace of 1.298mn just shy of October's record 1.306mn pace. That is still very strong, especially considering that a near 25% fall in the north-east may have been related to poor weather later last month (and hence temporary). Given the property investment boom that is now apparent across much of the States, supported by very low bond and hence mortgage rates, we expect new records to be progressively set and broken for monthly sales through the year.

Canadian CPI 1.6% yr in May. The CPI headline annual rate plunged 0.8 ppts in May, with softer energy prices pulling the monthly index down 0.2%, compared to an energy driven 0.6% spike in May last year. Core inflation pressures were also subdued, with the Bank of Canada's preferred measure drifting down to 1.6% yr, well below the mid-point of the 1-3% target band.

German CPI rises to 1.9% yr in June. With the German CPI jumping 0.2 ppts, the broader Euroland CPI flash estimate later this week is likely to rise from 1.9% yr in May to 2.0% or even a little higher – once again breaching the "close to but below 2%" ECB definition of price stability. However with core inflation averaging 1.5% yr for most of this year so far, the ECB will not be too concerned, and should continue to leave monetary policy unchanged. Indeed a rate cut could be justified, but is unlikely.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
27 Jun Eur Apr Current Account EURbn nsa 3.0 n/f
Ger Jun Ifo Business Climate Index 92.9 93.1
UK Jun House Prices (N’wide BS) 0.3% n/f
May BBA Lending Data
28 Jun NZ May Merch Trade Bal NZDmn -147 280
US Jun Conf Brd Cons Confidence 102.2 107.0
Upcoming Events

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Q1 GDP Review (24 June)
• NZ Q1 Current Account Review (23 June)
• NZ Q2 Consumer Confidence (22 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (20 June)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (20 June)
• NZ Q1 GDP Preview (17 June)
• NZ Q1 Current Account Preview (17 June)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
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AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
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