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Monday June 27, 2005 - 23:19:36 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: NZD stretches its legs
Following the weekend's volatile trading session, NZD/USD opened on its lows yesterday around 0.7040. The currency saw buying interest first up and gained further upward momentum as the euro pushed from 1.2095 to 1.2110. NZD/USD continued to nudge higher throughout the remainder of the local session and printed a high of 0.7083 just before the close. Selling of AUD/NZD was also evident during the afternoon session and the cross again broke through 0.9200. The offshore session initially brought a period of consolidation however the currency then bounced between 0.7060 and 0.7095. The overnight session also saw the release of the NBNZ June Business Confidence survey. This showed that business confidence was slightly softer than May and expectations of further inflationary pressures eased.

Australian Dollar: AUD suffers on profit taking
After outperforming a number of currencies in recent times, the AUD found itself on the other side of the market. Rising oil prices also added to the currency's woes. The AUD opened around 0.7686 yesterday morning and was contained within a tight 23 point range during the day - unable to break resistance at 0.7700. Selling of AUD/NZD yesterday saw the cross reach a low of 1.0864. Overnight trading saw AUD/USD continue to range trade and managed a brief foray above 0.7700 on the back of a rallying EUR. AUD/NZD continued to dip posting an intraday low of 1.0835. The AUD opens around 0.7690 this morning.

Major Currencies: Euro firms against USD and JPY
The domestic session yesterday saw a continued recovery in the euro after briefly dipping below 1.2000, last week. The market improved steadily over the domestic session from lows of 1.2084, towards intraday highs at 1.2138. With crude oil futures prices in New York touching their highest level since the inception of the contract in 1983, attention has begun to focus on the effect of record oil prices on global growth. This particularly impacts Japan, which imports almost all its oil products and the yen was pressured against both the USD and the euro during the local session. In the offshore session, the European currency extended its gains with crude oil prices remaining firm and an improved German Ifo business sentiment reading of 93.3. A statement from the Bank for International Settlements noting that a "further depreciation of the USD was almost inevitable" pushed EUR/USD to overnight highs of 1.2184. The euro opens this morning at 1.2160. USD/JPY approached its best levels for 8 months, establishing a 109.45 high as China said it would not be browbeaten into revaluing its Yuan peg and opens this morning at 109.30. Sterling remained mixed, with UK housing data having little impact. The market traded between 1.8222 and 1.8315 and opens at 1.8290 this morning.

German Ifo up, as expected.With the EUR lower over the past
month, the Ifo survey recovered to 93.3 from 92.9 (the market
forecast was 93.2). The current assessment increased to 93.7 from
93.4, while expectations increased from 92.3 to 92.9.

Eurozone current account deep in the red. The April non seasonally adjusted balance usually registers a shift into deficit. However, at -11.6bn the deficit was significantly larger than the -3.5bn expected. The seasonally-adjusted balance plunged to -0.8bn from +2.7bn, also highlighting how low the current account balance was. Between March and April there was a dramatic drop-off in net income inflows.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
28 Jun NZ May Merch Trade Bal NZDmn -147 280
US Jun Conf Brd Cons Confidence 102.2 107.0
Jun Richmond Fed Index 4 6
Jpn May Retail Trade %yr 3.9% 3.1%
Eur May Money Supply M3 %yr 6.7 n/f
29 Jun US Q1 GDP (F) %ann'lsd 3.5% 3.7%
Jpn May Industrial Production 1.9% -1.3%
UK May Net Consumer Credit £bn 1.3 1.5

Latest Research papers/Publication
NZD 0.7048 - 0.7083 0.7062 - 0.7095 _0.7080 0.7060-0.7095
AUD 0.7675 - 0.7698 0.7672 - 0.7705 _0.7694 _(0.9203) 0.7675-0.7710
JPY 109.10 - 109.39 109.20 - 109.45 _109.31 _(77.390) 109.10-109.55
EUR 1.2084 - 1.2138 1.2142 - 1.2184 _1.2159 _(0.5823) 1.2135-1.2185
GBP 1.8222 - 1.8248 1.8242 - 1.8315 _1.8285 _(0.3872) 1.8260-1.8310
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (27 June)
• NZ Q1 GDP Review (24 June)
• NZ Q1 Current Account Review (23 June)
• NZ Q2 Consumer Confidence (22 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (20 June)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (20 June)
• NZ Q1 GDP Preview (17 June)
• NZ Q1 Current Account Preview (17 June)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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