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Tuesday June 28, 2005 - 10:49:40 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD strengthens in Europe, led initially by USDJPY.

• However, appetite for more USD strength may be limited for now.

• JPY needs some decent economic data to offset impact from oil prices.

• Eurozone private sector lending firmer.

• BoC’s Dodge and US consumer confidence feature today.

Market Outlook

The USD has been stronger overnight, initially against the JPY, although since Europe opened this has also spread to the EUR. The JPY was the main mover in Asia, undermined by ongoing gains in oil prices and USD-JPY managed to edge above the June 15 recent high at 109.71 in early European trading. This leaves some upside risk on USD-JPY and long positions will be favoured as long as such ground is maintained. However, while this is technically attractive, the Japanese economic data this week (industrial output, unemployment and the Tankan) and a possible reversal in some of the recent oil price strength could yet trigger a JPY recovery. Also note that there are a number of issues of uncertainty for the USD to face up to (FOMC Thursday and ISM Friday ahead of the holiday weekend and payrolls next week). 133.50 on EUR-JPY will also have significance for overall JPY performance.

EUR-USD weakness in early Europe took it below the 1.2140 North American low from yesterday and thus far it has not managed to get below short-term support at 1.2080 (1.2088 has been the low). This needs to break to keep the move going, although consolidation is favoured overall with US issues still outstanding and a recovery back up towards 1.2200 (and possibly beyond) may be seen later. US consumer confidence is unlikely to have much impact, as a decent number should be discounted.

Eurozone M3 data will bolster the ECB’s arguments against the need for a cut in short-term rates. The ECB has been specifically citing the strength in private sector lending and the y/y growth rate for this variable rose to +7.6% from +7.4%. French business sentiment data was mixed to better. The ‘overall’ production outlook weakened further, although the business climate indicator improved and the ‘own-company’ production outlook rose for the 2nd month in a row, recovering to levels not seen since January. Italian business confidence remained weak.

Day Ahead
Canada – BoC governor Dodge gives a speech in London entitled The Canadian economy and the international monetary order and given the recent run of stronger data out of Canada, the market will be on the lookout for any hints about an early resumption of monetary tightening. A mini-series of three rate hikes or so is likely to begin in the second half of this year as long as recent data developments are not surprisingly reversed. The October 17 meeting is just about favoured over September 7 as the likely starting point for this. USD-CAD has to get below 1.2265 to suggest a move into a potentially lower trading range extending as far as 1.20.

US – the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is released and this is likely to show sentiment holding up fairly well. Oil prices have been strengthening for much of June although the very latest move over the past week or so may not have been picked up by this survey. The weekly ABC surveys have been fairly resilient.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Jun 25) w/w 07.45 +0.1% last
CA BoC’s Dodge speaks 08.15
US Redbook sls (w/e Jun 25) m/m 08.55 -0.1% last
US Consumer confidence (Jun) 10.00 104.2
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 19) 17.00 -10 last
JP Ind prod (May, prel) m/m 19.50 -2.3%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Trade balance (May) -NZ$24.7m NZ$300m
JP Retail sales (May) m/m -1.5% -1.4%
DE Consumer confidence (Jul) +3.5 +4.4 last
FR Ind outlook (Jun) -26 -22
FR Business climate indicator (Jun) 99 97
IT Business confidence (Jun) 84.2 84.4
EU M3 (May) y/y +7.3% +6.9%
EU M3 (May) 3m y/y +6.9% +6.7%
EU Private sector lending (May) y/y +7.6% +7.4% last
SE Retail sales (May) m/m +1.6% +1.1%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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