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Thursday June 10, 2004 - 10:20:09 GMT -

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Yen continues to slither between 50 and 38.2% retracement

Daily Forex Technical Report 6-10-2004

Yen continues to slither between 50 and 38.2% retracement
Swissie rockets to key Fib level

The failure to breach the key Fib level was all the EUR/USD bears needed to send the pair plummeting over 200 pips following the onset of the N. American session. After steadily sliding form the 50% retracement of 1.2930-1.1755 (1.2345), the pair crashed through the 38.2% retracement and trend regression (1.2200) after which prices finally found support just below the 23.6% retracement and lower channel trend regression line (1.2030) at 1.2020. The 240-min MACD histogram has cratered and seems to be rounding off slightly. We see breaks to the down side being supported by our proprietary pivot S2 level (1.1980) and the 61.8% retracement of 1.1380-1.2930 (1.1970). Resistance is scattered above starting at the 23.6% retracement line (1.2095) with more significant levels lying near the 50% retracement of 1.1380-1.2930 (1.2155). More indecision for the USD/JPY as the pair continues to snake through the pivotal range. A brief foray below the 50% retracement of 103.40-115.00 (109.20) was met by solid buying, wedging the cross between the 38.2% (110.55) above and the 50 below. A break of either of these levels should provide some direction to trade off of. As we mentioned in yesterday publication, oscillators still favor oversold conditions but have yet to drift up, as we would like to see when prices are due to rise. Despite the dramatic selling witnessed on other dollar crosses, the GPB/USD continues to hang respectively. The intermediate time frame MACD histogram has begun to slope lower, but seems to be lagging other oscillators on similar time frames, which have descended into neutral with the dollar strength. The Stochastic has fallen into oversold however as it is one of the faster moving indicators. The pair did however trade below the 50% retracement of 1.7475-1.8740 (1.8305). Our own proprietary support and resistance indicators register support at 1.8244 and 1.8190 respectively. Local resistance comes into play at and above 1.8400 with scattered levels near 1.8425/50. Daily RSI has just drifted below 60 after mapping above that reading for nearly seven trading days with Stochastic pointing lower from overbought. A large correction to the 23.6% retracement 1.2145-1.3230 (1.2560) for the USD/CHF just as we had noted in yesterday's publication. The downward trend remain in tact however as the MACD histogram has begun to keel off of highs registered on yesterday's 150+ pip move but other oscillators on similar timeframes still favor oversold. Daily studies show a fresh cross above the zero line on the MACD histogram could encourage more bullish sentiment. Trendline support comes into play at here at 1.2480.


Comment from 05/18
On 04/28 USDCAD broke the 3680/3700 area. The R turned S and the market used the zone as S (lows between 3630 & 3696 from 04/29 to 05/04). A rally to the 3991 high, 250pts higher occurred on 05/13. The outlook is clearly bullish. In addition, the yesterday's price action purged numerous weak longs out of the market. Most bears will then stay on the sidelines but aggressive reversal bears might try 4030/80 in order to exploit the High BB and 50% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bear wave. Vols are low and a breakout scenario is however highly probable. If 4000 is clearly taken, the level will become S and 4250 will be the next stop (50% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bear wave). Below, bulls will have a decent buy on dip play at 3580/3610 thanks to a robust Fibo confluence (61.8% Fibo from the Jul03 - Jan04 & 123.6% Fibo projection from the Nov - Jan bull wave)

On 05/18 USDCAD failed on the 4005 High (slightly below our 4030/4080 area) and reached the 3554 Low on 05/27 (slightly below our 3580/3610 area - 451pts lower). The pair kept its fall but had a quick bounce from the low to the 3725 high on 06/01, 171pts higher. The outlook is now neutral and the pair seems to establish a range. Bears will step in at 3720/70 in order to exploit the 23.6% Fibo from the Apr - May bull wave and the former breakout pt now R (May's consolidation). Higher, another decent entry for the bears will be 4020/50 thanks to the swing high, high BB and 38.2% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bear wave (error in our former comment - apologies!). Bulls will also have a couple of entries and will probably concentrate in the 3320/50 area thanks to the 200 SMA, 50% Fibo from the Jan - May bull wave and Low BB. A breakout there would then open the door to the 3100 level.


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