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Tuesday June 28, 2005 - 13:43:46 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (28 June 2005)

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the $1.2080 level and was capped around the $1.2170 level. The euro went bid yesterday following remarks from several European Central Bank officials who suggested the ECB has no easing bias. ECB’s Mersch said current official rates are appropriate for the “foreseeable future” while Bini-Smaghi said a rate cut at this point “may be harmful.” In contrast, most dealers believe the Federal Open Market Committee will tighten monetary policy by 25bps on Thursday, widening the differential between U.S. and eurozone yields even further. U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow today reiterated the U.S.’s long-standing “strong dollar” policy and added exchange rates are “best determined in open, competitive markets.” Traders await the release of consumer confidence data later in the North American session. In eurozone news, French manufacturing sentiment rebounded marginally while the EMU-12 M3 money supply climbed +6.9% y/y in the March – May period. Also, the German June GfK consumer climate index printed at 4.3, down from May’s 4.8 level. On the political front, French politico Sarkozy suggested the European Union’s enlargement plans should be shelved at this time. Euro offers are cited around the $1.2130/ 60 levels and some euro demand is seen around the $1.2050 level.


The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥109.90 level and remained supported around the ¥109.20 level. The pair remains within striking distance of moving above the psychologically-important ¥110.00 figure for the first time since 13 October 2004. Finance minister Tanigaki spoke overnight and reiterated his calls for China to increase flexibility of its yuan currency. He also said he is monitoring the effects of the elevated price of oil on the Japanese economy. Economy minister Takenana said he does not believe the market’s views on the Japanese economy have changed. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Muto was dovish in his remarks today saying all BoJ Policy Board members share the same view that it is “necessary” to maintain an accommodative policy until consumer prices rise “stably.” Data released in Japan today saw May retail sales decline 1.5% m/m and climb +2.7% y/y. In important news for foreign companies, the Japanese government announced plans to amend proposed legislation to permit foreign companies operating in Japan to continue doing so without reorganizing as a Japanese company. Dealers await tomorrow’s May industrial output numbers and most traders expect the seventh monthly decline in ten months. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.87% to close at ¥11,513.83. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥109.30/ 10 levels. The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥133.35 level and remained supported around the ¥132.80 level. Today’s high is the 50% retracement level of the move from the ¥136.15 level to the ¥130.60 level. Euro bids are seen around the ¥132.60 level. In Chinese news, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou reported interest rates are at a “proper” level and added “the inflation rate is going down.” Also, Moody’s reported the eventual revaluation of China’s foreign exchange regime is unlikely affect China’s stable A2 sovereign rating or outlook.

The British pound came off sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.8175 level and was capped around the $1.8295 level. No major economic data were released in the U.K. today and traders await the release of consumer credit and housing demand figures tomorrow followed by Q1 GDP data on Thursday. Technically, today’s low is just above the 50% retracement of the move from $1.8000 to $1.8330. Cable bids are cited around the $1.8165/ 25 levels. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6640 level and was capped around the ₤0.6660 level.


The Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2790 level and was supported around the CHF 1.2670 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw April retail sales climb a real 2.7% y/y. The June KOF leading indicator will be released tomorrow followed by June PMI on Friday. Technically, the pair may try to launch another attack on the recent CHF 1.2840 high. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.2670/ 20 levels. The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5450 level and was supported around the CHF 1.5420 level.


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