Thursday June 30, 2005 - 14:38:42 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Forex Bi-Weekly Survey Poll Results
In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar improved slightly against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.1997 from 1.2006 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (June 14 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2073.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) turned bearish the EURUSD after the recent changes in the spot rate to 43 from 53 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast improved to 109.23 from 108.89 two weeks earlier, but the latest mean USD/JPY forecast was for below the spot rate at the time of the poll. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 109.97. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index became more neutral the dollar from two weeks earlier. It was 47 after 43.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to rise to a mean $59.60 in three months from the current spot vs. the previous $54.03 estimate.
In a tracking question, participants were asked again where the ECB refi rate to be at the end of the year (currently 2.0%). This same question was posed on February 9, March 5, June 1 and June 28. Respectively, those seeing a refi rate above the current 2.0% were: 53%, 31%, 20% and 7%. Those expecting no change were: 32%, 49%, 46% and 41%. Those predicting a rate below 2.0% were: 15%, 20%, 34% and 52%.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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