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Friday July 1, 2005 - 11:29:38 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Dollar reaction to the news...mediocre?

Quotable

“I want to see how the market takes care of itself after the reaction.”

Jesse Livermore

FX Trading

So, was it already baked in the price? The implication/translation/summary and prediction is Fed keeps moving forward with rate hikes. That sounds a bit more aggressive than the market seemed to be expecting, yet the currencies barely reacted.

Bonds played dead for a bit on the Fed announcement, then drifted higher. Sure, makes sense. Fed will continue to hike, why not continue to buy bonds already trading near the ozone. But, no one ever said the market needed to validate our view.

So where does all this leave us? It leaves us with the dollar looking might good on yield differential. And if we consider the gem Jesse Livermore left us, before taking a pistol to his head—“The big money is made in the big swing. All one has to do is study conditions, take a position, and wait.” We could be in the midst of the Big Swing.

But for the non-Big Swingers among us—we try to discern the trees from the forest each day. And though it may be short-lived, one should probably consider the dollar “price action relative to the news” yesterday as mediocre at best. Which means the door is slightly cracked open for a correction to emerge. It could slam shut today, as trading progresses…but…

We got a wee-bit of “good” news from Europe this morning: Manufacturing in the dozen nations sharing the euro in June contracted less than expected, Bloomberg reported. And the euro did bounce off its lows made during the London session. Should we consider that good “price action relative to the news?” Here’s a look at a daily Wave chart we shared with our Members yesterday.



CHART



The pound is getting hammered again this morning on no particular news (threat of BOE cuts on falling housing prices and dismal retail numbers already reported seem to be doing the trick). Cable (that’s big-time fx trader talk) has tested a key support area:


CHART

There are a lot of “maybe” good ways to play for a correction out there. But the path of least resistance for the dollar is still up—conditions point that way. Maybe that will change, at least temporarily, and allow some to take some chips off the table in a Little Swing.


Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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