Friday July 1, 2005 - 12:36:18 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 01-07-05 ..... 1228 GMT
Pardon us, but we are focusing only on our Yen and Cable positions tonight. Best wishes for Independence Day for our US Readers.
$-Yen @ 111.12/16....Holding Long
R: 111.26 / 111.38-53 / 112.00
S: 110.92 / 110.71 / 110.42-37
The market was kind enough to trigger our Buy Order at 110.73 while not triggering the Buy at 111.31. Now that we can see Supports at 110.92 and 110.71, we'll be more comfortable in adding to our current Long position if the market contiues to move up from here. But that's something we'd like to do on Monday now, because the statistically projected Max High for today is 111.38
We'll have to be careful about a dip to 110.37 for now. A fall below that (in case Jap exporters sell on Monday morning) would suggest a further fall to 110.00-109.67
Buy $25K at 110.43, SL 110.23, TP open
$25K Long at 110.73, SL 110.27 (up from 110.23), TP open
Cable @ 1.7790/5.....Holding Short
R: 1.7846 / 1.7899-7915 / 1.7966
S: 1.7794 / 1.7746 / 1.7723-04
Last evening we wrote, "Should the immediate Support at 1.7905-7895 be broken, the Cable may eventually target 1.7404, and possibly lower. Some Support comes in at 1.7701 before 1.7404"
This view will hold while the Cable remains below 1.8120 now. It will HOPEFULLY hold even while the market remains below 1.7915.
What are the chances of the Cable rebounding and moving UP into the 1.79-81 region? Hopefully, the market will remain below 1.7855 now today. BUT, while the Support at 1.7704 is unbroken (maybe through today and Monday), a rally to test 1.7915-30 cannot be ruled out.
A breal of the 1.7704 Support (either today or on Monday), will make a rise to and past 1.7915-30 difficult.
Next question.....IN CASE the Cable rises to 1.7915-30 on Monday, would it be advisable to take new Short positions? Yes, it would be advisable, with a narrow Stop Loss.
Another question....what happens in case the Cable just remains ranged between 1.77 and 1.79 for the whole of next week? Well, in that case, the chances of a fall below 1.77 WITHOUT a prior upmove to 1.81 would reduce to 50% from the current 70%. That's a risk we'll have to take.
Sell GBP 15K at 1.7896, SL 1.7952, TP open
GBP 15K Short at 1.7856, SL 1.7930, TP open. As soon as the market trades 1.7725, bring SL down to 1.7846.
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