Friday July 1, 2005 - 13:39:55 GMT
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FX Economic Release Alerts
Refco FX Economic Release Alerts – Friday 1st July 2005.
University of Michigan Confidence (JUN F) (13:45GMT, 9:45EST)
Outlook: Final consumer confidence numbers in June, indicated by the University of Michigan survey, should fall this time around, but still remain an increase from the previous month for the first time this year. The housing market, which has been a driving force behind the economic growth for the past few months, has helped confidence as consumers are bringing in gains through wealth effects as U.S. existing-home prices reached a record in May. Rising incomes have also made a contribution to the optimism as personal income grew 0.2 percent in May. The only thing that has really weighed down confidence is oil. Prices reached a high of $60.95 a barrel this past week, causing consumers and business alike to worry about energy bills for the year to come.
Previous: US consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in May, the longest series of declines since 2002, to 86.90. Near-record gasoline prices and talk of housing ``bubbles'' by policy makers such as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan may be weighing on sentiment. Still, record sales of new and existing homes in April, together with better than expected retail sales last month in March, suggest consumer spending is holding up, supported by job growth and falling long-term interest rates.
ISM Manufacturing (JUN) (14:00GMT, 10:00EDT)
Outlook: Growth for U.S. manufacturers likely remained unchanged in June at 51.4, the lowest level in two years. Manufacturing growth has experienced continual contractions in the past seven months as inventories have expanded in the first quarter at the fastest pace in nearly five years. While consumer-side demand has remained strong through the first quarter, production has continually slowed as raw material prices have weighed on profits and companies take the opportunity found with strong economic growth to burn off excess inventories. Growth in the first quarter of the year was posted at a healthy 3.8 percent while rises in inventories have hemmed. Business inventories have fallen the four months ending in April at 0.3 percent while wholesaler inventories received an unexpected jump of 0.8 percent in April. Oil prices will also have hand in manufacturers' decision to slow production, as new highs in crude oil have been a common occurrence in the past quarter. Regional manufacturing figures also lend support for the ISM's expectations. The Philadelphia region jumped to 11.65 in June, but the New York's Empire measure dropped to 2.2 and Chicago slowed to 53.6.
Previous: The Institute of Supply Management's factory fell to a 23-month low 51.4 in May. Manufacturing has continuously tapered off as business leaders attempt to slowly filter excess inventory. Sales have also suffered as consumers filter more of their income to higher gasoline prices. Retail sales over the period fell 0.5 percent after surging 1.5 percent in April. Despite the new low, the figure has remained above the growth level of 50.0 for the past two years and indicators over the period seem to point to a pick up in the new future. Durable goods in May jumped 5.5 percent, the most for year. Additionally, new orders for non-manufacturing companies rose from 58.5 to 59.7 while export orders jumped to 62 from 52.5 the month before.
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