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Monday July 4, 2005 - 10:19:42 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European. Edition

Key Points
• Friday’s ISM manufacturing survey significantly heightens the risk of extended Fed tightening and a stronger USD short-term.

• GBP facing up to MPC but rate cut seems unlikely just yet.

• Australian trade deficit remains at lower level.

• US holiday today should see a quieter session.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has traded in soft fashion for most of the night following Friday’s break lower and it will be an uphill struggle this week to muster much in the way of a recovery. Friday’s ISM manufacturing number was significant as it neutralises one of the key arguments behind an early pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle. We will wait and see what the ISM nonmanufacturing and employment reports serve up this week, but it was the manufacturing survey that was the potential weak point.

If the Fed does extend its tightening cycle through much of the second half of this year it will extend the USD positive cyclical factors currently in play and delay the return of background balance of payments factors as a central driving factor for the market. This would in turn lower the base from which a decent bounce in EUR-USD could be seen. In the short-term, the 1.1985-1.2020 area will be tough to win back, but that is the first hurdle that has to be overcome to see any kind of recovery. It will take some bad US data news this week to see any vigorous recovery and more likely is a test down to the 2004 low of 1.1759. There is a growing chance of this breaking over the next few weeks and if this occurs it will open the way down towards 1.10. Apart from some initial activity, today’s session (devoid of the US because of holiday) should be a quiet one.

GBP has been another casualty and there may be more of this to come ahead of Thursday’s MPC outcome, as speculation about rate cut will remain high. However, a modest bounce is likely to follow if they do leave rates unchanged and an unchanged outcome is favoured. The BRC retail survey is due tonight. On cable the major level is now at 1.7480, the low from 2004. 112.50 is key on USD-JPY.

Australian data was mixed, with the trade deficit sustaining the improvement seen over the previous month but ANZ job ads weakening further. The deficit data will add to the perception that higher commodity prices are finally coming through to support exports. However, the improved trade picture may not be enough to support the AUD against a strong USD. Above 0.7530 is required to offer some encouragement, although 0.7440-75 is crucial on the downside.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Independence Day holiday
EU PPI (May) y/y 10.00 -3.6%
EU ECB’s Trichet at EU parlmnt 16.30
GB BRC retail survey (Jun) y/y 00.01 -2.4% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Monetary base (Jun) y/y +1.7% +2.0%
AU Trade balance (May) -A$1.6bn -A$1.4bn
AU ANZ job ads (Jun) m/m -1.9% -7.3% last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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