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Tuesday July 5, 2005 - 10:47:56 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• ECB story temporarily lifts EUR-USD but more downside likely today.

• More USD strength in general favoured in the shortterm.

• US factory orders feature today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD hovered above 1.1900 for most of the Asian session before weakening to 1.1868 in early Europe, but was temporarily squeezed higher (to 1.1940) following a MNS wire report about the ECB. The report cited unidentified sources as saying that the ECB had a tightening bias because of the fall in the EUR and the rise in oil prices and that the EUR weakness seen this year was equivalent to a 75bp rate cut. However, the market is unlikely to have genuine confidence in the likelihood of a rate hike anytime soon in the Eurozone. With the US market set to return from yesterday’s Independence Day holiday further USD gains look likely today.

Friday’s ISM manufacturing number was significant as it neutralised one of the key potential arguments behind an early pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle. If the Fed does extend its tightening cycle through much of the second half of this year it will extend the USD positive cyclical factors currently in play and delay the return of background balance of payments factors as a central driving factor for the market.

The market now has the 2004 low of 1.1759 firmly in its sights and this level is likely to be at least tested this week. Indeed, any further encouraging signs in this week’s US data (nonmanufacturing ISM tomorrow and payrolls Friday) will suggest the likelihood of a break below this level, opening downside risk to 1.10. The equivalent initial level of importance on cable is the 2004 low at 1.7480, while the 2004 low on USD-CHF was at 1.3227. 112.50 is significant for USD-JPY.

The strong USD theme is becoming extremely dominant and the AUD and NZD are in danger of being swept further away in this move. Ultimately, some very good support should return for such high-yielding currencies, but a further clear out is favoured in the short-term. NZD has already broken below its key level at 0.6904 last week, leaving risk down to 0.64, while the AUD has been severely testing the major support area at 0.7430-75 in Europe this morning. Below that area leaves risk down to 0.7345 and 0.7220. The CAD has been more resilient and with BoC rate hike risk growing the CAD does have its attractions. However, there will also be some upside risk on USD-CAD in this environment as long as it stays above 1.2380.

Day Ahead
US – factory orders data is released in the US and much of it is already known via the durable orders report. However, there are sometimes sizeable revisions to the durables data itself in the factory orders report, so there is some market-moving potential. Durable orders ex-transport for May were down 0.2% m/m in the durables report released on June 24.
Australia – the RBA announce their latest policy decision tonight and an unchanged rate outcome is widely anticipated by the market. No statement will be offered if the cash rate is left unchanged.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Jul 2) w/w 07.45 -0.6% last
US Redbook sls (w/e Jul 2) m/m 08.55 0.0% last
US Factory orders (May) m/m 10.00 +3.0%
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 3) 17.00 -11 last
AU RBA rate announcement 19.30 5.5%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB BRC retail survey (Jun) y/y -0.5% -2.4% last
DE Retail sales (May) y/y +2.7% 0.0%
IT PMI services (Jun) 48.9 47.9
FR PMI services (Jun) 57.9 58.3
DE PMI services (Jun) 52.3 52.7
EU PMI services (Jun) 53.1 53.4
GB PMI services (Jun) 55.8 54.6
The PMI service sector surveys above were released yesterday
EU Retail sales (May) m/m +1.1% +0.4%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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