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Thursday July 7, 2005 - 05:27:36 GMT
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: The UK wins the Olympics, now will they beat the EU in the interest rate race as well?

Market Recap

The highlight of today so far has been Aussie employment data which came out stronger than expected, lifting the AUD/USD from .7390 to .7420, where it met with stiff resistance.

Late in the NY session yesterday we saw the JPY sell-off on the back of a strong close in Crude Oil. USD/JPY broke above 112, while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also rallied strongly. The "Black Gold" remains above US$61.50 as i'm writing this email, and any continued strength will pressure the JPY given that Japan imports all its oil needs.

For the main part of today it will be a case of the calm before the storm, ahead of tomorrow's US Payrolls data. Given that the market's looking for a strong number, the risk for the USD will be to the downside. Saying that, i'm also looking for a good number (above 200k), and even if we get a soft number, i think the market is so USD bullish at the moment that they will shrug off the data, and buy any sort of pullback.

The main events for today will be the ECB and BOE interest rate meetings later today. The market's not expecting any change in rates this time around, however any comments hinting at rate cuts to come will work to cap the EUR and GBP. If you were able to get short EUR and GBP around the levels i suggested yesterday, i'd look to hold onto these positions going into the rate announcements. In addition, we have UK's HBOS House Prices - a second tier number, but will be looked at for any sort of confirmation of a slowing housing sector.

The USD dipped slightly on profit-taking after recent strong gains, while higher oil prices hit the yen. Meanwhile, many investors remain sidelined ahead of key US payrolls numbers on Friday as well as interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England tomorrow

The USD reacted little to much stronger-than-expected US services ISM data this afternoon, which showed a reading of 62.2 in June from 58.5 in May, way ahead of the consensus for a slight dip to 58.4. The firm reading, together with the solid manufacturing ISM, support the Fed's view that growth is well supported and warrants further interest rate hikes in the US.

Nevertheless, market expectations are already for a very strong payrolls report on Friday, allowing scope for disappointment and leaving investors unwilling to take the dollar too much higher for the time being.
U.S. Treasury debt recovered some ground on Wednesday after two sessions of steep losses, though investors were too skittish ahead of Friday's key jobs market data to buy bonds wholeheartedly.
Traders said market moves were mostly technical this week, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish chart watchers rather than any fundamental shift in the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as crude prices muscled to a record high, trading for the first time above $61 a barrel, as two tropical storms fanned widespread worries over supply.

Today’s Economic Releases:

UK: BOE Interest Rate Decision
EMU: ECB Interest Rate Decision

Today’s Top Trades
· Sell EUR/USD strength towards 1.1950-60
. Sell GBP/USD around 1.7535-50

Abdul Khan

For more ideas send me an email, abdul.khan@tricom.com.au

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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